Currency news and forecasts for Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the CAD vs MXN, you should pay attention to both Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso news and forecasts.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) - Market news and forecasts
5-December-18: In early December, the Canadian dollar traded at C$1.34 per USD — its weakest level in 18 months. It did so after traders revised down their expectations for future Canadian interest rate hikes following a dovish Bank of Canada meeting.
Also not helping the loonie in late 2018 has been the oil price which, by the time of this report, had slumped 30 percent from 2018 highs. Oil is Canada’s largest export.
In December, several FX analysts expressed a belief that inevitable OPEC production cuts will create a rebound in the oil market, which will drive the Canadian dollar higher throughout 2019.
Risks to the Canadian dollar include, of course, oil, and the return of global trade tensions. Tensions eased in early December when US and Chinese leaders agreed to suspend tariff increases for 3 months.
Also in December, Citibank offered a “long-term” (>18 months) forecast for USD/CAD of 1.2, representing potential CAD appreciation of 12 percent.
Mexican Peso (MXN) - Market news and forecasts
12-December-18: The peso has done well in 2018. A new trade agreement with the US and Canada (USMCA) struck in September boosted economic certainty but failed to support FX valuations; instead, late in the year, a 3-month trade truce between the US and China, and the offer by authorities to buy back bonds linked to a cancelled airport project each provided a shot in the arm.
Approaching year-end, the peso was showing a 2018 loss of only 2 percent against a strong US dollar. USD/MXN failed to break meaningfully above 20.5 despite trying in four separate weeks spanning November and December, and after peso bears threw in the towel, the peso strengthened by December-12 to 20.0. Rates between 20.5 and 20.6 now offer meaningful resistance (peso support).
“The peso is likely to remain under devaluation pressure for the time being since there is a lot of uncertainty about the political future of the country,” a Commerzbank analyst said in December. However, midway through 2019, “against the backdrop of a credible central bank and high interest rates, the peso should recover somewhat.”