The Canadian dollar (CAD) has shown recent resilience, buoyed by its correlation with a stronger U.S. dollar, despite the impact of weakening oil prices on the currency's gains. Analysts note that the upcoming release of Canada's June services PMI could critically influence the CAD’s performance. Should the sector remain in contraction, this could hinder any upward momentum for the "loonie."
Conversely, the Mexican peso (MXN) has experienced significant volatility, particularly in response to trade tensions with the U.S. Recent comments from Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum regarding potential retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs have added to the currency's instability. Although the peso briefly fell, it rebounded after indications from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that tariffs might be eased, which sparked optimism in the market. This environment hints at expectations that the current U.S. tariffs may not endure long-term.
Recent geopolitical developments also play a vital role. A proposed agreement where Mexico would send troops to the border in exchange for a delay in U.S. tariffs could stabilize sentiment and potentially strengthen the peso in the near term.
In terms of CAD to MXN pricing, the exchange rate currently stands at 13.74, which is approximately 2.3% below its three-month average of 14.06. This exchange rate has shown relative stability, trading within a range of 6.8% from 13.73 to 14.66. Moreover, the performance of oil prices significantly influences the CAD, which is closely tied to Canada’s status as a major oil exporter. Currently, oil prices are trading at 68.80, marking a 3.2% increase above their three-month average, amidst a volatile range of fluctuations from 60.14 to 78.85.
Overall, the CAD's trajectory against the MXN will likely depend on factors including oil price movements, U.S.-Canada trade relations, and the evolving landscape of Mexican political and economic policies. As both currencies navigate external pressures, traders should remain attentive to these influences when planning international transactions.