CAD/MXN Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, pressured by weak economic indicators.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has maintained rates while the Bank of Mexico has cut rates, increasing the gap between the two currencies.
• Risk/commodities: Recent fluctuations in oil prices are affecting the CAD, with a significant drop in crude prices leading to a weaker loonie.
• One macro factor: The contraction in Canada's services sector and flat economic growth limits further support for the CAD.
Range:
The CAD/MXN is likely to drift within its recent range as pressures from weak economic data continue.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: An unexpected rebound in oil prices could improve CAD strength.
• Downside risk: Continued negative developments in the Canadian economy or further rate cuts by the Bank of Mexico could weaken the peso.