The CAD to MXN exchange rate is currently bearish, trading at 90-day lows near 12.92, which is 1.4% below the 3-month average of 13.11.
Key drivers include:
- The interest rate differential remains stable, with the Bank of Canada maintaining its policy rate, which does not attract significant foreign investment.
- Oil prices are influencing the CAD, currently at highs near 63.01, which may provide some support to the loonie if sustained.
- Canadian job growth has shown robust numbers, indicating healthier economic performance, though the immediate impact may be muted.
In the near term, trading is expected to remain within a narrow range, reflecting minor fluctuations as market sentiment stabilizes.
Upside risk for the CAD could stem from a substantial recovery in oil prices, significantly boosting the economy. Conversely, a downturn in the Mexican economy, possibly influenced by weaker remittances or a divergence in monetary policies, may weaken the MXN further against the CAD.