CAD/MXN Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and exhibiting stable movements within its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has reduced interest rates to support growth, while the Bank of Mexico has maintained its rates, which may favor the peso over the loonie.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, but ongoing volatility may impact CAD significantly, given Canada’s reliance on oil exports.
• One macro factor: Mexico's recent tariffs on non-FTA imports could affect trade flows, influencing the peso's performance.
Range: The CAD/MXN is expected to drift within its current range, with no immediate extremes anticipated.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A substantial recovery in oil prices could strengthen the CAD against the MXN.
• Downside risk: Further deterioration in Canadian trade relations could pressurize the loonie, leading to a weaker CAD.