The CAD/MXN exchange rate appears bearish in the near term. Key drivers include the interest rate differential, as the Bank of Canada maintains its rate at 2.25%, while Mexico's Banxico is expected to cut rates less aggressively. Additionally, the recent softening of Canadian manufacturing signals weaker economic growth, which may pressure the CAD. Oil price fluctuations also play a role; as oil nears $62 per barrel, lower prices could potentially weaken the CAD due to reduced revenue from Canada's oil exports.
Expect the CAD/MXN to trade within a stable range in the coming months, likely reflecting the recent pricing around 13.02, just below its three-month average. Upside risks could arise from a surprising recovery in Canadian growth indicators or a significant rebound in oil prices. Conversely, any sharp economic downturn in Canada or hints at a more aggressive easing of U.S. monetary policy could create downward pressure on the exchange rate.