CAD/MXN Outlook:
The CAD/MXN exchange rate is currently below its 90-day average and near recent lows. There is pressure on the CAD due to falling oil prices and concerns over Canada's economic growth.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada's decision to keep rates unchanged contrasts with Mexico's stable interest rate, which may support the MXN over the CAD.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices recently at 90-day highs, the strong upward trend could normally boost the CAD; however, falling prices are currently lowering demand for Canadian exports.
• Economic performance: Canada’s GDP report could reveal a contraction, further impacting the CAD negatively.
Range:
Expect the CAD/MXN to test the lower end of its recent range but remain stable within its current band.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant increase in oil prices could renew demand for the CAD.
• Downside risk: A disappointing GDP report from Canada could deepen CAD declines against the MXN.