CAD/MXN Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and trading near recent lows.
Key drivers:
- The Bank of Canada has maintained its policy rate, while the Bank of Mexico keeps its rate higher, which supports the MXN through attractive yields.
- Oil prices are significantly above their average, benefiting the CAD as Canada relies heavily on oil exports.
- Mexico is seeing positive foreign investment trends, bolstered by nearshoring and strong manufacturing growth.
Range: Expect CAD/MXN to remain stable within its recent range, potentially testing the lower end but unlikely to break out strongly in either direction.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A notable increase in oil prices could strengthen the CAD against the MXN.
- Downside risk: Any negative news regarding US-Mexico trade agreements might pressure the peso lower, impacting the CAD/MXN exchange rate.