CAD/MXN Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, pressured by lower oil prices and Canadian trade issues.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates, while the Bank of Mexico maintains a higher rate, reducing the appeal of the CAD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are elevated, but this has not helped the CAD, given its current lower value compared to the average, highlighting pressures on Canadian exports.
• Economic growth: Mexico's GDP growth is forecasted at only 1.3%, but trade policy changes might lend some stability to the MXN.
Range: CAD/MXN is likely to drift within its recent range, remaining under pressure but avoiding extreme lows.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant rebound in oil prices could enhance the Canadian dollar's attractiveness.
• Downside risk: Further declines in Canadian exports or worsening trade relations could weaken CAD versus MXN.