Currency news and forecasts for Canadian Dollar and Philippine Peso
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the CAD vs PHP, you should pay attention to both Canadian Dollar and Philippine Peso news and forecasts.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) - Market news and forecasts
5-December-18: In early December, the Canadian dollar traded at C$1.34 per USD — its weakest level in 18 months. It did so after traders revised down their expectations for future Canadian interest rate hikes following a dovish Bank of Canada meeting.
Also not helping the loonie in late 2018 has been the oil price which, by the time of this report, had slumped 30 percent from 2018 highs. Oil is Canada’s largest export.
In December, several FX analysts expressed a belief that inevitable OPEC production cuts will create a rebound in the oil market, which will drive the Canadian dollar higher throughout 2019.
Risks to the Canadian dollar include, of course, oil, and the return of global trade tensions. Tensions eased in early December when US and Chinese leaders agreed to suspend tariff increases for 3 months.
Also in December, Citibank offered a “long-term” (>18 months) forecast for USD/CAD of 1.2, representing potential CAD appreciation of 12 percent.
Philippine Peso (PHP) - Market news and forecasts
Since 2013, the Philippine peso has been among the world’s worst performing currencies. The second quarter of 2018 saw the peso fall to its lowest levels since 2005 at rates per US dollar in the mid-₱54s. With October and early November’s recovery (see below) to 53 per dollar, the peso reduced its year-to-date loss to only 5.7 percent versus the greenback. Against the euro, the peso was little changed (₱60.22) on the year, and it was marginally higher against the Australian dollar (₱38.33).
The principal reasons for peso weakness remain the Philippines’ trade deficit, which in 2017 was the largest ever recorded at $29.8 billion, and inflation, which reached 6.7 percent in the year to September.
On November 8th (the day of this report), the peso achieved its highest level against the dollar in 5 months and its highest level against the euro in 10 months. Short-term peso strength has been the result of a “perception that inflation has peaked,” said a Union Bank of the Philippines economist.
For 2019, the peso’s downtrend will likely resume, per the remarks of DBS’ chief economist, who believes that “a very similar dynamic” of peso weakness will play out.