The exchange rate forecasts for the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the Philippine peso (PHP) indicate a complex interplay of factors affecting both currencies. Recently, the CAD has found some support due to its positive correlation with a stronger US dollar, although diminishing oil prices have posed challenges. Currently, the CAD to PHP rate is at a 7-day high near 41.60, which is 2.2% above its three-month average of 40.72. This stability comes amidst a trading range of 39.72 to 41.81 over the past three months, demonstrating relative calm in the face of fluctuating market conditions.
Analysts observe that the CAD is significantly influenced by commodity prices, particularly oil, as Canada is one of the world’s largest oil exporters. The recent oil price trend sees OIL to USD at 68.80, which is 3.2% above its three-month average of 66.66, showcasing volatility with a trading range from 60.14 to 78.85. Such fluctuations in oil prices can bolster or hinder the Canadian economy, thereby affecting the CAD's value.
Political developments have also impacted the CAD, with the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and subsequent appointment of Mark Carney potentially introducing instability. Additionally, trade tensions with the United States, marked by the imposition of tariffs, may limit the CAD's strength moving forward. The Bank of Canada has opted to maintain interest rates, which can provide some support for the CAD, yet uncertainties surrounding US trade policies dampen optimistic forecasts.
On the Philippine side, concerns about the peso include a likely depreciation influenced by overvalued external balances and retaliatory tariffs from the United States. Experts suggest that the peso's outlook is dimmer, indicating a potential decrease against the USD, which could correlate with its performance against the CAD.
In summary, while CAD is currently performing well against PHP, the outlook remains clouded by geopolitical concerns and economic uncertainties in both Canada and the Philippines. Observers recommend keeping a close eye on oil market trends, trade policies, and the evolving political landscape to gauge potential movements in the CAD/PHP exchange rate.