CAD/PHP Outlook:
The CAD/PHP rate remains slightly weaker and likely to move sideways, trading about 1.4% below its 3-month average and near the lower end of its recent range. There is no strong driver to shift its position significantly in either direction.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada's recent interest rate cut and cautious policy contrasts with the aggressive easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, exerting downward pressure on the CAD.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices currently 10.5% above their 3-month average, this volatility impacts the CAD, but its positive influence is muted by broader market conditions.
• One macro factor: Ongoing political and fiscal instability in the Philippines, stemming from corruption scandals, continues to cloud the outlook for the PHP.
Range:
The CAD/PHP rate is likely to hold steady within its recent range without testing extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant stabilization or rise in oil prices could support a CAD recovery.
• Downside risk: Continued political upheaval in the Philippines may further weaken the PHP against the CAD.