The Canadian dollar (CAD) has shown recent resilience, buoyed by an increase in oil prices and robust GDP growth, which supports its status as a commodity-linked currency. As of early December 2025, the CAD is trading at around 42.51 PHP, marking a 1.4% increase from its three-month average, reflecting that the currency is currently at seven-day lows. Oil prices have fluctuated significantly, last recorded at $59.75 per barrel, which is 6.5% below the three-month average of $63.88. This volatility impacts the CAD due to Canada's reliance on its oil exports for economic stability. Analysts suggest that a sustained increase in oil prices may further strengthen the loonie in the near future.
However, challenges remain. The Bank of Canada recently lowered interest rates at the end of October, which could weigh on the CAD's appreciation potential due to reduced investor confidence. Manufacturing data has also shown contraction, indicating a mixed economic outlook that could lead to short-term fluctuations.
On the other hand, the Philippine peso (PHP) is experiencing downward pressure, having recently depreciated notably amid concerns over a potential economic slowdown driven by controversies surrounding infrastructure spending. The peso hit a record low of 59.262 per USD in October and reflects broader market concerns, including corruption that has shaken investor confidence. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has shifted to a market-determined exchange rate policy, which demonstrates a willingness to let the currency respond to market forces, but it also suggests that there may be further depreciation in the pipeline if economic conditions do not improve.
Given these dynamics, the outlook for the CAD/PHP exchange rate will heavily depend on the development of oil prices, ongoing economic indicators from both Canada and the Philippines, and any policy shifts implemented by their respective central banks. Currency market players should monitor these elements closely as they could lead to significant movements in the CAD/PHP exchange rate moving forward.
