CAD/PHP Outlook:
The CAD/PHP exchange rate is currently below its 90-day average and near recent lows. This negative trend is supported by the softening demand for the Canadian dollar due to stalled oil prices.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada's recent interest rate cuts have made the CAD less attractive compared to the Philippine Peso.
• Risk/commodities: Current oil prices are significantly above their recent average, yet the volatility is concerning, impacting Canada's revenue and the CAD's value.
• One macro factor: Ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. are further dampening the CAD’s performance as tariffs strain Canadian exports.
Range:
Expect the CAD/PHP to drift within its recent range, moving gradually without testing extremes.
What could change it:
• An upside risk could arise if oil prices stabilize and increase, bolstering the CAD.
• A downside risk exists if negative economic news from Canada or further trade disputes with the U.S. surface, impacting investor confidence.