Forecasts for CAD to PHP
The exchange rate forecast for the CAD to PHP is currently influenced by several notable factors, primarily the fluctuations in oil prices and recent political developments in the Philippines. The Canadian dollar (CAD), known as the "loonie," is closely tied to crude oil prices due to Canada's status as a major oil exporter. Recent market updates indicate that the CAD experienced volatility alongside shifts in oil prices, recovering some losses as prices rebounded in the evening. However, oil is presently trading near its 90-day lows at 61.29, approximately 13.2% below its three-month average, suggesting a challenging environment for the CAD, especially as it recently reached 14-day lows near 40.28 against the Philippine peso (PHP).
Analysts point out that the CAD's performance will continue to be heavily influenced by movements in the oil market, as the commodity-linked currency typically strengthens when oil prices rise and weakens when they decline. Given the current downward trend in oil prices, which have fluctuated within a volatile range of 25.6%, the CAD could face pressure in the near term.
On the other hand, the Philippine peso's outlook appears uncertain due to external factors such as recent tariffs imposed by the U.S. and ongoing political tension related to the upcoming mid-term elections. Economists from ABN Amro anticipate that the PHP might depreciate against the USD by 2025, which may also impact cross rates against the CAD. The political climate, particularly with the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte, is contributing to heightened uncertainty that could influence investor sentiment toward the peso.
In summary, while the CAD may see fluctuations in response to oil price recoveries, the overall outlook remains cautious due to the current oil market dynamics and the political landscape in the Philippines. As trade relationships and commodity prices evolve, both currencies are expected to navigate a period marked by volatility and external pressures.
