Bias: The outlook for USD/PHP is bullish-to-range-bound, as the current rate is above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to slightly ease monetary policy in the coming months, while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas may also implement rate cuts, which could narrow the interest rate difference between the two currencies.
- Risk/commodities: The Philippines faces challenges due to weak growth prospects and inflation concerns, which may keep the peso under pressure against the USD.
- One macro factor: The peso's recent depreciation reflects ongoing worries about governance issues and a reduced infrastructure budget, impacting economic performance.
Range: The USD/PHP pair is likely to hold near its current level within the recent 3-month range, potentially testing higher levels but facing resistance from economic challenges.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market report could boost USD demand further.
- Downside risk: An unexpected dovish tone from the Federal Reserve could lead to a weaker USD.