Bias: USD/PHP is bullish-to-range-bound, above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve is expected to ease toward neutral in 2026, while the BSP is seen cutting later in 2026, keeping near-term USD support versus PHP.
- One macro factor: ING flags a deteriorating Philippines balance of payments, implying higher external funding needs and ongoing peso pressure.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the three-month band, with a tendency to test the upper end but not break.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Stronger US payrolls or a hawkish Fed tone could push the dollar higher.
- Downside risk: Softer US data or dovish Fed signals and earlier BSP easing could push USD/PHP toward the lower end.