EUR/AUD - Rate Guide

Euro (EUR)

Euro sentiment dipped in mid-June after the ECB, like other major central banks of the world, ramped up its dovish rhetoric. It said that there was “considerable room” for further quantitative easing and that it would consider negative interest rates. Ordinarily, this would spark an extended euro decline but since other major currencies are also wrestling with easier central bank policies, euro depreciation may be contained.

In spite of Brexit, a slowdown in economic growth, Italian risks and persistently weak inflation — an important measure of inflation expectations fell in June to a record low — the euro did fantastically well against the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and British pound between mid-April and mid-June. Due to a stronger US dollar, EUR/USD was down 2 percent on the year at $1.12, close to long-term lows.

Read more in the article EUR Forecasts.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

In early August the Australian dollar sunk to a 10 year low of 67¢ (Aug-7) to the US dollar. This was due to the offshore yuan breaking the symbolic and closely watched USD/CNY = 7.0 exchange rate, after the trade war flared up again and the US labelled China a "currency manipulator".

Investors have sold AUD in recent months as they’ve bet on aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. These bets paid off: the RBA cut its cash rate in both June and July to a record low of 1 percent.

Lower borrowing costs are necessary, investors believe, in light of persistently soft domestic data and the fallout from a US-China trade standoff that shows no sign of nearing an end.

AUD will continue to track changes in interest-rate expectations. Economists expect at least one further cut this year and many expect two by early 2020. After July's cut, the RBA hinted it would leave rates unchanged for several months.

Interestingly, AUD has decoupled from commodity prices in 2019. The price of iron ore (Australia’s largest export) nears multi-year highs while AUD languishes.

Further RBA interest rate cuts this year are now a certainty, and that doesn’t bode well for currency valuations. Westpac has predicted three cuts this year.

Read more in the article AUD Forecasts.

The mid-rate is the rate you will see quoted online or the news. It is actually just the half-way point (hence mid-rate) between the last rate at which the EUR / AUD was traded (bought or sold) in the international markets.

All foreign exchange providers charge a fee for providing their service and this fee is usually contained within the exchange rate margin (or difference to the mid-rate). Some providers such as Transferwise will quote you the mid-rate (or close to) and charge a separate percentage fee.