The market bias for the EUR to AUD exchange rate is currently range-bound. Key drivers include the interest rate differential, with expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising rates in early 2026 compared to a cautious European Central Bank. Recent geopolitical tensions and energy market disruptions continue to weigh on the euro.
The exchange rate is forecasted to trade within a stable range, showing limited major fluctuations. Currently, the EUR to AUD pair is 1.7% below its three-month average, indicating some short-term stability.
An upside risk could come from stronger economic data out of the Eurozone, potentially supporting the euro. Conversely, a sharp decline in commodity prices could lead to downward pressure on the AUD, affecting the exchange rate negatively. The fluctuating price of Brent Crude oil, currently 2.9% below its recent average, may also impact the euro’s performance, reflecting broader economic conditions that could influence the EUR/AUD pairing.