The EUR to AUD exchange rate exhibits a subdued outlook amidst recent mixed economic data from the Eurozone and positive developments from Australia. Currently trading at 30-day lows around 1.7813, just below its three-month average, the pair has fluctuated within a stable range of 3.4% recently.
The euro's current performance is influenced by weaker service sector growth revisions and sticky producer price inflation, alongside a contraction in retail sales expected in July. This mixed economic backdrop has led analysts to caution investors regarding the euro's potential for recovery in the near term, especially given concerns from European Central Bank (ECB) officials about the currency’s recent strength against the U.S. dollar. The ECB has indicated a tolerable threshold of $1.20 for the euro, beyond which export competitiveness could suffer, particularly in light of U.S. tariffs imposing pressure on Eurozone exports.
In contrast, the Australian dollar is experiencing support from robust domestic GDP growth, which expanded by 0.6% in the second quarter, surpassing expectations. The heightened focus on Australia's trade figures could further bolster the AUD, particularly if export strength continues. Economists highlight that the AUD could recover, especially amid forecasts suggesting improved performance in the second half of 2025 due to commodity price trends and a generally risk-on sentiment in global markets.
Moreover, fluctuations in oil prices, currently hovering at $67.60 per barrel—2.1% below their three-month average—could indirectly impact the EUR/AUD pair, as oil price dynamics are closely linked to both currencies' economies. A steady or rising oil market can strengthen the AUD, given Australia's commodity-exporting status, while further declines may weigh on the overall outlook.
Considering these dynamics, forecasters indicate that the balance between the euro's mixed fundamentals and the Australian dollar's growth potential creates a cautious environment for traders. Stakeholders in international transactions should remain vigilant, as shifts in economic indicators, trade dynamics, and geopolitical issues are poised to influence the EUR/AUD exchange rate in the coming weeks.
