GBP/AUD - Rate Guide

GBP to AUD Forecasts

In early August the US labels China a "currency manipulator" pushing the GBP/AUD rate back up through the 1.8 level. Brexit and 2019's RBA policy shift are the dominating themes for GBP/AUD. A "no deal" Brexit is likely to induce exchange rates near A$1.60, HSBC has said.  Read more

British Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound valuations will continue to fluctuate based on Brexit No-deal, Deal and Remain probabilities. No-deal prospects may increase if, as is widely expected, ardent Brexiteer Boris Johnson becomes the UK’s next prime minister. However, some banks argue that Johnson’s appointment would make little difference to no-deal or remain probabilities.

The pound is unlikely to receive much in the way of meaningful respite until November, analysts say, when hopefully the UK-EU Brexit arrangement, or lack thereof, is known (Boris Johnson insists that the UK will not seek any further Article 50 extensions beyond the October-31 deadline).

The pound would be doing far worse if it weren't receiving some support from the Bank of England which, surprisingly, is the only major central bank still considering higher interest rates in 2019.

By some margin, the pound was the worst-performing major currency in the second quarter. It slipped in late June to multi-month lows against a number of important currencies, including the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, euro, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc.

Read more in the article GBP Forecasts.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

In early August the Australian dollar sunk to a 10 year low of 67¢ (Aug-7) to the US dollar. This was due to the offshore yuan breaking the symbolic and closely watched USD/CNY = 7.0 exchange rate, after the trade war flared up again and the US labelled China a "currency manipulator".

Investors have sold AUD in recent months as they’ve bet on aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. These bets paid off: the RBA cut its cash rate in both June and July to a record low of 1 percent.

Lower borrowing costs are necessary, investors believe, in light of persistently soft domestic data and the fallout from a US-China trade standoff that shows no sign of nearing an end.

AUD will continue to track changes in interest-rate expectations. Economists expect at least one further cut this year and many expect two by early 2020. After July's cut, the RBA hinted it would leave rates unchanged for several months.

Interestingly, AUD has decoupled from commodity prices in 2019. The price of iron ore (Australia’s largest export) nears multi-year highs while AUD languishes.

Further RBA interest rate cuts this year are now a certainty, and that doesn’t bode well for currency valuations. Westpac has predicted three cuts this year.

Read more in the article AUD Forecasts.

The mid-rate is the rate you will see quoted online or the news. It is actually just the half-way point (hence mid-rate) between the last rate at which the GBP / AUD was traded (bought or sold) in the international markets.

All foreign exchange providers charge a fee for providing their service and this fee is usually contained within the exchange rate margin (or difference to the mid-rate). Some providers such as Transferwise will quote you the mid-rate (or close to) and charge a separate percentage fee.