Outlook
The Mexican peso is expected to tread a cautious, range-bound path through 2026. Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 7% supports price stability, but moves in U.S. policy and global risk appetite will remain key drivers. Analysts forecast the peso to trade roughly between 18 and 20 per USD in 2026, with a mild depreciation bias amid Mexico’s growth challenges and the Fed’s policy path. This backdrop keeps the MXN sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment and U.S. data. (english.elpais.com)
Key drivers
- Banxico’s policy decision on February 6, 2026: holding at 7% reinforced a cautious stance on inflation, contributing to a modest peso depreciation against the dollar. (fxleaders.com)
- Economic growth outlook for 2026: analysts project the peso trading around 18–20 per USD, reflecting Mexico’s growth headwinds and U.S. monetary policy. (english.elpais.com)
- Emerging market trends: the peso has shown resilience on attractive rate differentials and a softer U.S. dollar, though it remains sensitive to global risk sentiment and U.S. data. (tastyfx.com)
- Trade relations and tariff concerns: peso strength in some episodes has occurred when U.S. credit ratings faced downgrades, but ongoing trade tensions and U.S. fiscal challenges continue to influence performance. (vtmarkets.com)
Range
- MXN/USD: 0.058233; 3-month average 0.05653; 3.0% above; range 0.054479 to 0.058427
- MXN/EUR: 0.049293; 3-month average 0.048114; 2.5% above; range 0.046906 to 0.049569
- MXN/GBP: 0.042955; 3-month average 0.041919; 2.5% above; range 0.040994 to 0.043312
- MXN/JPY: 9.0955; 3-month average 8.818; 3.1% above; range 8.4914 to 9.1351
What could change it
- Unexpected Banxico moves or new inflation data that alter rate differentials.
- Shifts in U.S. monetary policy or stronger/weaker U.S. data impacting the dollar.
- Changes in global risk appetite or EM flow dynamics due to geopolitical or macro Developments.
- Progress or setbacks in U.S.–Mexico trade relations and tariff policies.
- Shifts in carry trades or funding conditions influencing EM currency demand.
