Outlook
Markets forecast the peso to trade around 18–20 MXN per USD in 2026, with a mild depreciation bias overall as Mexico faces growth headwinds and the U.S. policy path remains uncertain. In the near term, Banxico’s 7% policy hold reinforces a cautious inflation stance and can weigh on the peso if U.S. data or risk sentiment deteriorates. A firmer U.S. dollar or stronger risk-off tone would press MXN toward the upper end of recent ranges; clearer global growth signals or a softer U.S. stance could support some peso resilience.
Key drivers
- Banxico decision on February 6, 2026: policy rate held at 7%, signaling caution on inflation and inflation-management; the move contributed to modest peso softness against the dollar.
- Economic growth outlook for 2026: analysts’ forecast for the peso to trade in the 18–20 per USD band, implying a slight depreciation bias overall in the year as U.S. policy and domestic headwinds influence Mexico.
- Emerging-market trends: the peso has shown resilience from attractive rate differentials and a softer greenback, but remains sensitive to global risk sentiment and U.S. macro data.
- Trade and tariff considerations: ongoing tensions and fiscal dynamics in the U.S. can sway risk appetite and MXN performance, even as measures from the Mexican side continue to support carry appeal.
- Current price action and levels: peso momentum is influenced by a mix of local policy, U.S. data, and global risk mood, with recent price action reflecting near-term caution around U.S. policy and risk sentiment shifts.
Range
MXN to USD at 0.058116 is 2.7% above its 3-month average of 0.056567, having traded in a relatively stable 7.0% range from 0.054585 to 0.058427
MXN to EUR at 0.049241 is 2.3% above its 3-month average of 0.048138, having traded in a quite stable 5.7% range from 0.046906 to 0.049569
MXN to GBP at 0.043082 is 2.7% above its 3-month average of 0.041943, having traded in a quite stable 5.7% range from 0.040994 to 0.043312
MXN to JPY at 9.0597 is 2.7% above its 3-month average of 8.8233, having traded in a relatively stable 7.6% range from 8.4914 to 9.1351
What could change it
- A surprise change in Banxico policy (hike or cut) or a shift in forward guidance.
- A material shift in U.S. monetary policy path or stronger/weaker U.S. data releases.
- A change in global risk sentiment or a notable shift in trade/tariff dynamics affecting risk appetite.
- Domestic Mexican data surprises (growth, inflation, or external‑sector indicators) that alter the near-term carry appeal or growth trajectory.
