Outlook
The Mexican peso is forecast to stay broadly stable in 2026, trading roughly between 18 and 20 pesos per U.S. dollar as the economy navigates Banxico’s anti‑inflation stance and the evolving U.S. rate path. The peso finished 2025 stronger and nearshoring plus rising foreign investment in manufacturing support MXN demand. U.S. tariff dynamics add a layer of risk, but negotiations to delay or soften measures aim to reduce downside. Markets envisage a period of steady risk sentiment with gradual policy alignment between the two economies.
Key drivers
- Nearshoring and higher foreign direct investment in Mexico’s manufacturing base supporting peso demand.
- Banxico’s inflation-fighting credibility and policy stance, with a guided path for interest rates influencing carry and flows.
- U.S. monetary policy trajectory and rate differentials shaping attraction of Mexican assets.
- Trade relations and tariff negotiations with the United States introducing near-term uncertainty but potential mitigation if delays or compromises are reached.
- External risk sentiment and global growth signals influencing risk appetite and FX flows into MXN.
Range
MXN/USD current level is 0.057958 USD per MXN, which is 3.8% above its 3-month average of 0.055831, with a 3-month trading range of 0.054040 to 0.058279.
MXN/EUR current level is 0.049010 EUR per MXN, 2.7% above its 3-month average of 0.047714, trading in a 3-month range of 0.046825 to 0.049108.
MXN/GBP current level is 0.042596 GBP per MXN, 2.3% above its 3-month average of 0.04164, in a 3-month range of 0.040994 to 0.042623.
MXN/JPY current level is 9.1135 JPY per MXN, 4.5% above its 3-month average of 8.7245, in a 3-month range of 8.3807 to 9.1351.
What could change it
- A sharper shift in U.S. rates (faster hikes or earlier cuts) altering the USD/MXN carry and flows.
- A material change in Banxico’s policy stance or in inflation trajectories altering peso resilience.
- Escalation or resolution of U.S.–Mexico tariffs impacting near-term volatility and risk sentiment.
- Stronger or weaker-than-expected Mexican growth and investment data affecting demand for Mexican assets.
- Global risk events or shifts in market liquidity that drive safe-haven demand or appetite for emerging-market currencies.
