Outlook
The Mexican peso faces guidance from Banxico policy and global risk sentiment. Banxico left the policy rate at 7% on February 6, signaling a cautious stance on inflation, which remains above target and is not expected to return to 3% until mid-2027. This has kept the peso rangebound, with occasional softness when domestic inflation remains elevated. Positive emerging-market sentiment and a softer U.S. dollar have provided near-term support, and ongoing US-Mexico trade discussions (USMCA) add a constructive backdrop for Mexican growth, though policy uncertainty remains a factor.
Key drivers
• Banxico policy stance and inflation trajectory
• Emerging-market risk appetite and USD direction
• Progress of US-MCA negotiations and trade relations
• Domestic data surprises (inflation, growth) and external energy/commodity flows
Range
MXN/USD is at 14-day highs near 0.058268, 3.7% above its 3-month average of 0.056151, having traded in a relatively stable 7.8% range from 0.054040 to 0.058279
MXN/EUR is at 90-day highs near 0.049156, 2.6% above its 3-month average of 0.047887, having traded in a quite stable 4.8% range from 0.046900 to 0.049156
MXN/GBP is at 90-day highs near 0.042749, 2.4% above its 3-month average of 0.041748, having traded in a quite stable 4.3% range from 0.040994 to 0.042749
MXN/JPY at 8.9435 is 2.0% above its 3-month average of 8.764, having traded in a relatively stable 8.0% range from 8.4612 to 9.1351
What could change it
• A shift in Banxico policy posture (hawkish tilt or on-hold stance shifting)
• A reversal or acceleration in U.S. dollar strength and global risk sentiment
• Clear progress or renewed friction in USMCA/trade negotiations
• Domestic data surprises (inflation, growth) altering rate expectations and risk appetite
