Outlook
Banks see the peso weakening toward the 19 MXN per USD area by year-end, reflecting tariff risks. Banxico left the policy rate at 7% in February, keeping inflation in focus. Nearshoring and rising investment offer some support, but inflation remains above target in the near term. The MXN may stay in a narrow range, with a downside tilt if tariffs persist and price gains stay sticky.
Key drivers
• U.S. 15% import surcharge weighs on MXN.
• Banxico at 7% keeps inflation dynamics in focus.
• Nearshoring and stronger foreign investment provide peso support.
• Core inflation remains above target; a return to 3% is expected by mid-2027.
Range
MXN/USD 0.056804; near its 3-month average; range 0.054766–0.058427.
MXN/EUR 0.048833; above its 3-month average; range 0.047057–0.049569.
MXN/GBP 0.042502; above its 3-month average; range 0.041100–0.043312.
MXN/JPY 8.9175; above its 3-month average; range 8.5065–9.1351.
What could change it
• Tariff policy shifts in the United States.
• Surprise Banxico policy move or faster inflation cooling.
• A sustained rise in nearshoring investment or capital inflows.
• Changes in global risk trends and dollar strength.
