Outlook
The Mexican peso is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026, trading in a roughly 18–20 pesos per USD band. The outlook is supported by Banxico’s anti-inflation stance and a stabilizing U.S. rate path, with nearshoring and rising foreign investment providing continued demand for Mexican assets. Tariff tensions pose occasional upside or downside risk, but efforts to delay tariffs help cushion the peso from sharp moves.
Key drivers
- Stable rate path for 2026, with inflation containment allowing policy to anchor expectations.
- Banxico’s policy stance and the differing trajectory of U.S. rates shaping carry and investment flows.
- Nearshoring and higher foreign direct investment boosting demand for Mexican assets.
- Trade tensions and tariff negotiations creating headline risk, though delays mitigate immediate volatility.
- Global risk sentiment and commodity cycles influencing capital flows into Mexico.
Range
MXN/USD at 0.058067 is 3.7% above its 3-month average of 0.055987, having traded in a relatively stable 7.8% range from 0.054040 to 0.058279.
MXN/EUR at 0.048925 is 2.4% above its 3-month average of 0.047791, having traded in a quite stable 4.9% range from 0.046825 to 0.049108.
MXN/GBP at 0.042638 is 2.3% above its 3-month average of 0.04169, having traded in a quite stable 4.2% range from 0.040994 to 0.042716.
MXN/JPY at 8.8753 is 1.5% above its 3-month average of 8.7422, having traded in a fairly volatile 8.5% range from 8.4232 to 9.1351.
What could change it
- Unexpected shifts in Banxico policy (surprise inflation prints or policy rate changes).
- U.S. Federal Reserve moves (faster or slower easing/hiking in response to growth or inflation).
- Resumption or acceleration of tariff implementations versus delays.
- Shifts in nearshoring investment flows or broader foreign investment conditions.
- Shifts in global risk sentiment that alter capital flows to EM currencies.
