Outlook
The MXN stays in a cautious-to-soft stance into 2026. Banxico held at 7%, signaling patience on inflation. The peso has shown resilience in EM markets, but its path depends on U.S. data and global risk appetite. In the near term, a mild drift weaker versus the dollar remains possible if U.S. data strengthens or risk appetite cools.
Key drivers
- Banxico’s 7% policy stance and inflation trajectory shape the peso’s pace.
- U.S. policy path and incoming data influence the dollar and carry trades.
- EM demand and a softer dollar provide support when risk appetite improves.
- Global energy and commodity cycles can influence macro risk and MXN flows.
Range
MXN/USD current 0.057699; 3-month avg 0.056664; range 0.054627–0.058427. MXN/EUR current 0.049073; 3-month avg 0.048198; range 0.046906–0.049569. MXN/GBP current 0.043053; 3-month avg 0.042; range 0.040994–0.043312. MXN/JPY current 9.0380; 3-month avg 8.8393; range 8.4914–9.1351.
What could change it
- U.S. data surprises.
- Banxico inflation or growth shifts.
- Global risk appetite moves or a stronger dollar.
- Policy surprises in other large EMs can shift flows.
