Outlook
The peso remains in a cautious but slightly resilient stance into 2026. Banxico’s February 6 policy hold at 7% keeps inflation risks in focus and has supported a modest near-term peso backdrop, though the currency still faces external headwinds from U.S. policy and global risk sentiment. Analysts forecast a 2026 trading range around 18–20 MXN per USD, suggesting a depreciation bias over the year despite near-term EM tailwinds and a softer dollar. Trade tensions and U.S. fiscal policy developments remain key risks to watch.
Key drivers
- Banxico policy stance: Banxico left the policy rate at 7% on February 6, signaling a cautious approach to inflation, which has kept the peso sensitive to U.S. data and global risk appetite.
- 2026 price forecasts: Analysts expect the peso to trade around 18–20 MXN per USD in 2026, implying a gradual depreciation from current levels (source: El País). Markets note that external policy and growth dynamics will matter more than stimulus at home.
- Emerging-market trends: The peso has shown resilience due to attractive rate differentials and a softer dollar, though performance remains vulnerable to shifts in global risk sentiment and U.S. data releases (markets and EM dynamics cited by TastyFX).
- Trade relations and tariffs: U.S. credit developments and ongoing trade tensions have historically influenced the peso, with fiscal policy in the U.S. continuing to shape risk sentiment and MXN demand.
Range
MXN to USD current 0.058185, 3-month average 0.056489, range 0.054479–0.058427 (3.0% above 3-month average).
MXN to EUR current 0.049411, 3-month average 0.048092, range 0.046906–0.049569 (2.7% above 3-month average).
MXN to GBP current 0.043113, 3-month average 0.041904, range 0.040994–0.043312 (2.9% above 3-month average).
MXN to JPY current near 9.0741, 3-month average 8.8112, range 8.4914–9.1351 (3.0% above 3-month average; 14-day highs).
