Outlook
The peso faces a modest depreciation risk into year-end as nearshoring supports growth, but a 15% U.S. tariff and sticky inflation weigh on gains. Banxico’s 7% hold preserves carry but slows a stronger rally until inflation moves toward target. If trade tensions persist or escalate, the peso could test the higher end of recent ranges toward the 19 per USD area.
Key drivers
• Nearshoring inflows and steady domestic activity bolster peso resilience
• Banxico’s 7% hold keeps the carry advantage but limits upside
• U.S. tariff risk weighs on trade-related FX and risk appetite
• 2026 growth prospects underpin peso demand amid an uneven recovery
Range
MXN/USD 0.0578 (3m avg 0.0567; range 0.0547–0.0584)
MXN/EUR 0.0494 (3m avg 0.0482; range 0.0469–0.0496)
MXN/GBP 0.0431 (3m avg 0.0420; range 0.0410–0.0433)
MXN/JPY 9.0818 (3m avg 8.8466; range 8.4936–9.1351)
What could change it
• U.S. tariff stance shifts or a resolve on trade frictions
• Banxico signals quicker inflation cooling or later easing
• A stronger wave of nearshoring investment improving external accounts
• Changes in global risk appetite affecting USD strength
