The Mexican Peso (MXN) has experienced notable volatility in recent months influenced by several key factors. Analysts highlight the impact of U.S. tariffs imposed on February 1, 2025, which introduced a 25% penalty on Mexican imports. Although the full implementation of these tariffs has faced delays, the ongoing uncertainty around trade relations with the U.S. has weighed on the peso.
Additionally, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) maintained interest rates at 11.00% in June 2025, suggesting a dovish outlook that has contributed to a depreciation of the currency. As expectations regarding potential interest rate easing emerge, market participants remain cautious about the weight of these monetary policies on the peso's strength.
Trade policy uncertainties are further amplified by the upcoming early review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), originally set for 2026. The outcomes of this review could significantly reshape trade dynamics and tariffs, leading to additional volatility in the currency.
Despite these challenges, the peso has benefitted from improved global risk sentiment, particularly with the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks. In June 2025, the peso rallied against the U.S. dollar, nearly breaking the 19-mark that reflects its resilience amid external pressures.
In recent trading data, the MXN to USD pair has been stable at 0.053778, remaining just below its 3-month average and reflecting a relatively narrow range of 2.9%. Meanwhile, the MXN to EUR exchange rate stands at 0.046786, 1.1% above its average. The MXN has demonstrated strength against the GBP, currently at 90-day highs near 0.041220, and the MXN to JPY is trading at 8.2861, significantly above its 3-month average, signaling a stable performance across some pairs.
Market experts suggest that ongoing geopolitical and economic developments will continue to shape the future trajectory of the peso, urging individuals and businesses to remain attuned to these factors as they navigate international transactions.
