Outlook
Outlook: The peso remains sensitive to U.S. policy and Banxico’s inflation path. Banxico held at 7%, keeping depreciation risk in play. In 2026 the peso is seen around 18–20 MXN per USD as U.S. policy diverges; a softer dollar helps, but risk appetite matters.
Key drivers
• Banxico rate hold at 7% signaling inflation caution, keeping depreciation pressure.
• Forecasts point to depreciation toward 18–20 MXN per USD.
• EM rate differentials and a softer dollar support the peso, though risk appetite and U.S. data remain.
Range
MXN/USD 0.058020; 3-month avg 0.056602; range 0.054585–0.058427.
MXN/EUR 0.049085; 3-month avg 0.048157; range 0.046906–0.049569.
MXN/GBP 0.043029; 3-month avg 0.041962; range 0.040994–0.043312.
MXN/JPY 9.0544; 3-month avg 8.8289; range 8.4914–9.1351.
What could change it
• U.S. data or Fed path affecting the dollar.
• Banxico inflation cues altering rate expectations.
• Trade tensions or U.S. fiscal shifts impacting external demand.
• Mexican growth signals or reforms affecting risk appetite.
