Bias
MYR looks set to stay firmer on a positive external backdrop in 2026, supported by a weaker US dollar from Fed rate cuts, Malaysia’s resilient growth, a widening trade surplus, and rising FDI inflows. The combination points to a modest, multi‑currency strength for the MYR rather than sharp moves.
Key drivers
- The Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate cuts have weakened the US dollar, providing upside for the MYR.
- Malaysia’s economy has shown resilience, with 2025 GDP growth running around a strong pace (5.1% projected), boosting investor confidence.
- A solid export sector (electronics and commodities such as oil and palm oil) has widened the trade surplus, underpinning external demand for the MYR.
- Increased FDI, notably in technology and green energy, has supported demand for the MYR.
Range
MYR/USD current 0.2465; 3-month average 0.2427; range 0.2364–0.2472.
MYR/EUR current 0.2120; 3-month average 0.2085; range 0.2033–0.2127.
MYR/GBP current 0.1839; 3-month average 0.1824; range 0.1765–0.1847.
MYR/JPY current 38.83; 3-month average 37.78; range 35.67–39.22.
Brent Crude OIL/USD current 63.77; 3-month average 62.93; range 59.04–66.18.
What could change it
- US monetary policy path: if the Fed accelerates cuts or signals a longer easing cycle, the USD may remain soft and the MYR could strengthen further; if policy tightens or fattened expectations reemerge, the USD could rebound.
- Oil price movements: sustained moves above or below current ranges can influence Malaysia’s terms of trade and FX flows, given oil’s role in exports.
- Domestic data and external demand: surprises in Malaysia’s GDP, trade data, or FDI inflows/outflows could shift the balance of external support for the MYR.
- Global risk sentiment and EM flows: shifts in appetite for emerging markets can alter capital flows into the MYR.
- Policy or political developments in Malaysia: changes in economic policy, investment incentives, or geopolitical risk could impact investor confidence and the currency outlook.
