Outlook
Malaysia’s ringgit has held near multi-year highs, underpinned by solid domestic growth, a stable policy backdrop, and optimism around AI-related supply chains. Bank Negara Malaysia kept the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75%, and Q4 2025 growth at 5.7% supported foreign demand and investment signals. Continued strength will hinge on US dollar direction and oil price moves. Sustained domestic resilience and a stable policy stance could keep the ringgit firm, while a renewed rally in the greenback or a sharp pullback in oil could cap further gains.
Key drivers
- US dollar strength/weakness and risk sentiment: A softer US dollar and firmer global appetite have supported the ringgit to date.
- AI supply chain optimism: Malaysia’s involvement in AI-related supply chains boosts investor confidence and capital inflows.
- Monetary policy stability: Bank Negara Malaysia left the OPR at 2.75%, signaling policy stability that supports the currency.
- Strong domestic data and external demand: 5.7% growth in 4Q2025, resilient domestic demand, tourism strength, and rising FDI bolster the ringgit.
- Oil price sensitivity: Oil trades around the mid-to-high 60s and has shown volatility; as a commodity exporter, oil moves can influence MYR sentiment and direction.
Range
- MYR/USD: current 0.2537; 3-month average 0.2449; range 0.2381–0.2552; +3.6% above 3-month average.
- MYR/EUR: current 0.2139; 3-month average 0.2097; range 0.2067–0.2141; +2.0% above 3-month average.
- MYR/GBP: current 0.1853; 3-month average 0.1832; range 0.1812–0.1855; +1.1% above 3-month average.
- MYR/JPY: current 39.32; 3-month average 38.20; range 36.58–39.38; +2.9% above 3-month average.
- Brent Crude OIL/USD: current 67.36; 3-month average 63.24; range 59.04–69.09; +6.5% above 3-month average.
What could change it
- A shift in US dollar trends or global risk sentiment: unexpected USD strength or risk-off momentum could dampen MYR gains.
- Oil price reversals: a material fall could weigh on the ringgit, while a sustained rise might support it.
- Domestic data or policy surprises: stronger-than-expected data or a shift in policy stance could push the pair beyond current ranges, or weaker data could do the opposite.
- External demand shifts: softer FDI inflows or tourism weakness could compress MYR gains.
- Geopolitical or supply-chain developments in Asia: news affecting regional growth and trade could influence MYR direction.
