The Philippine peso (PHP) is currently experiencing a mix of pressures and some stability against major currencies. Analysts note that USD/PHP is trading at seven-day highs near 0.017705, which is just 0.6% below its three-month average of 0.01781. The pair has shown a stable trading range of 3.5% between 0.017458 and 0.018069.
In recent forecasts, ABN Amro has suggested that the PHP may face depreciation against the USD in 2025, emphasizing concerns over the country's weaker external balances and an overvalued currency. This outlook could be influenced by external factors, including the recent imposition of a 17% reciprocal tariff on Philippine goods by the United States, part of the broader trade tensions under the Trump administration.
Further complicating the landscape are political uncertainties following the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte for alleged crimes against humanity. This development has sparked concerns regarding the upcoming mid-term elections in the Philippines. While mid-term elections typically indicate stability, heightened political uncertainty could lead to fluctuations in the peso.
The currency's performance against the euro (EUR) and the British pound (GBP) shows notable trends as well. PHP to EUR is currently at 0.015154, which is 2.6% below its three-month average, trading within a 7.5% range. In contrast, the pair PHP to GBP is at 14-day highs near 0.013121, only 0.9% below its three-month average, demonstrating a more favorable position.
Additionally, the PHP to Japanese yen (JPY) is trading at 2.6062, which is 1.3% above its three-month average, reflecting a relatively stable performance. The exchange rate has varied within a 6.7% range, indicating ongoing volatility influenced by external economic conditions.
Emerging Asian currencies, including the PHP, continue to be affected by broader market developments—especially the ramifications of tariff announcements by the United States, which have also limited the Philippines' ability to capitalize on supply chain diversification strategies compared to peers like Vietnam, India, and Malaysia. Overall, the outlook for PHP remains cautious amid external pressures and political developments.
