Recent analyses indicate that the Thai baht (THB) is expected to appreciate due to several economic factors as Thailand approaches 2026. The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) forecasts an average exchange rate of 31.8 THB per US dollar next year, partly driven by a weaker US dollar and anticipated capital inflows, alongside a strong current account surplus.
However, the Bank of Thailand has tempered expectations, projecting only a 1.5% growth in GDP for 2026. This cautious outlook is attributed to challenges, including potential slowdowns in exports due to the baht's strength, which could impact the tourism sector negatively. The Thai National Shippers' Council has expressed concern that while they predict a modest 2-4% increase in exports, this may be undermined by high export bases and reduced order volumes.
Additional economic pressures arise from the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking, which forecasts even slower economic expansion of approximately 1.6% for next year. Factors such as China's industrial overcapacity and the repercussions of recent flooding in southern Thailand are cited as significant influences.
In recent market performance, the THB has shown some resilience. It is currently trading at 0.031763 against the US dollar, which is 2.0% higher than its three-month average. The currency has remained stable within a range of 0.030446 to 0.032204. against the Euro, the THB stands at 0.027073, up by 1.2% from its three-month average, while against the British pound, it is slightly up at 0.023620. The yen shows more volatility, with the THB trading at 4.9824—3.7% above its three-month average, influenced by broader market movements.
Overall, while the baht has room for appreciation, businesses and individuals engaging in foreign transactions should remain mindful of the challenges that might affect the currency's performance in 2026.
