Outlook
The Thai baht remains firm against major currencies, supported by forecasts of continued appreciation in 2026 as the US dollar softens and Thai fundamentals stay solid. However, the strength raises concerns about export competitiveness and tourism, which could cap further gains if policy or external conditions shift. Prices show the baht holding near multi-month highs with modest volatility.
Key drivers
- The Fiscal Policy Office expects ongoing baht appreciation in 2026, driven by a softer US dollar and strong Thai fundamentals.
- The Bank of Thailand has intensified oversight of foreign-exchange transactions, targeting gold traders and currency dealers to curb speculative inflows.
- The appreciation has spurred concerns about export competitiveness and tourism impact, presenting a potential headwind to a continued rally.
- Reports highlight illicit funds channeled through digital assets contributing to the baht’s rise and potentially affecting the tourism sector.
Range
THB/USD 0.032158, 1.2% above its 3-month average of 0.031779, having traded in a stable 5.1% range from 0.030885 to 0.032456
THB/EUR 0.027278, 0.7% above its 3-month average of 0.027082, having traded in a stable 3.1% range from 0.026701 to 0.027522
THB/GBP 0.023859, near 30-day highs at 0.023606, having traded in a stable 4.0% range from 0.023049 to 0.023982
THB/JPY 4.9867, near 7-day highs at 4.9586, having traded in a stable 5.6% range from 4.8307 to 5.1007
What could change it
- Further Bank of Thailand FX interventions or policy tweaks could limit additional gains or encourage them, depending on currency pressures.
- A pronounced shift in US dollar strength or Thai macro data (growth, inflation, tourism receipts) could alter the pace of appreciation.
- Changes in illicit capital flows or regulatory actions around digital assets could modify the baht’s impulse.
- Improvements in Thai export competitiveness or tourism demand could ease the impact of a stronger baht, while worsening conditions could accelerate the negative effects.
