Outlook
The Thai baht remains in a cautious, range-bound stance near policy-driven limits. December 2025 currency controls by the Bank of Thailand have helped curb excessive gains, but authorities warn a very strong baht could hurt export competitiveness. January 2026 commentary from analysts points to a possible controlled depreciation to support exports and tourism as the economy recovers. Currency data show THB trading modestly weaker versus major peers today, with about 1.1%–1.5% moves above three-month averages across key pairs, suggesting a finely balanced path ahead for importers, exporters, remitters and travelers.
Key drivers
- Bank of Thailand tightened currency controls in December 2025, targeting gold traders and currency dealers to manage baht strength.
- Finance Ministry voiced concern in December 2025 that a very strong baht could harm export-led growth.
- Reports from November 2025 noted illicit funds, including through digital assets, contributing to baht strength and affecting tourism dynamics.
- Analysts in January 2026 signaled a possible controlled depreciation to bolster exports and tourism as part of the economic recovery.
- The latest price data show the baht is hovering near the upper end of recent ranges against major peers, with modest deviations in the short term.
Range
THB/USD 0.032170 (3-month average 0.031834); range 0.031016–0.032456
THB/EUR 0.027318 (3-month average 0.027105); range 0.026701–0.027522
THB/GBP 0.023836 (3-month average 0.023618); range 0.023049–0.023982
THB/JPY 5.0167 JPY per THB (30-day high); 3-month average 4.9659; range 4.8434–5.1007
What could change it
- A major shift in Bank of Thailand policy, either tighter or looser currency controls.
- A clearer stance on depreciation versus appreciation from Thai policymakers or through external demand shifts.
- Significant changes in export performance or tourism receipts affecting the baht’s external balance.
- A shift in global dollar strength or risk sentiment that alters cross-asset flows.
- Regulatory developments impacting illicit funds or digital-asset channels influencing baht dynamics.
