Outlook
The baht is seen with a modest appreciation bias in 2026. The Fiscal Policy Office forecasts the baht averaging about 31.8 THB per USD, supported by a weaker US dollar, a strong current-account surplus, and ongoing capital inflows. The Bank of Thailand has moved to a more accommodative stance, with a policy rate cut to 1.25% in December 2025 to spur growth, while growth in 2026 is expected around 1.6% (below potential). Taken together, these factors point to gradual THB strengthening, though upside may be tempered by domestic growth pressures and scrutiny of dollar flows.
Key drivers
- FPO forecast: Baht around 31.8 THB per USD in 2026, aided by a weaker US dollar, capital inflows, and a healthy current-account surplus (the balance of trade and related incomes).
- BOT policy posture: Rate cut to 1.25% in December 2025 to stimulate growth, with ongoing attention to capital flows and currency stability.
- Growth backdrop: 2026 growth projected around 1.6%, below potential, which can cap currency upside and keep domestic demand delicate.
- Currency-flow controls: In December 2025, the BOT tightened scrutiny over baht transactions, especially in the gold sector, amid baht appreciation, aiming to curb excess volatility and speculative moves.
- External backdrop: A softer US dollar and stable, sizable current-account inflows support a softer bias for the baht; global risk sentiment and capital flows remain key drivers.
- Recent price data signals: THB/USD at 0.032175 (about 2.4% above the 3‑month average of 0.031425) within a relatively tight 5.4% range (0.030572 to 0.032216); THB/EUR near 0.027375 (about 1.5% above the 3‑month average of 0.02698) within a 4.7% range (0.026292 to 0.027522); THB/GBP at 0.023836 (about 1.0% above the 3‑month average of 0.0236) within a 4.5% range (0.022960 to 0.023982); THB/JPY near 5.1016, a 90‑day high and about 4.1% above the 3‑month average of 4.9011, within a 9.2% range (4.6738 to 5.1016).
Range
- THB to USD: 0.030572 - 0.032216; current 0.032175 (2.4% above its 3-month average of 0.031425; range about 5.4%)
- THB to EUR: 0.026292 - 0.027522; current 0.027375 (1.5% above its 3-month average of 0.02698; range about 4.7%)
- THB to GBP: 0.022960 - 0.023982; current 0.023836 (1.0% above its 3-month average of 0.0236; range about 4.5%)
- THB to JPY: 4.6738 - 5.1016; current 5.1016 (90-day high; 4.1% above its 3-month average of 4.9011; range about 9.2%)
What could change it
- US policy path: A stronger or weaker US dollar driven by Fed policy and US data could shift THB valuation via dollar strength or weakness.
- Thai policy shifts: Any change in BOT stance (re-accelerated easing or a shift toward tightening) or adjustments to capital-flow rules would alter carry dynamics and volatility.
- Domestic data: Stronger-than-expected Thai growth, export performance, or a larger current-account surplus could bolster the THB; weaker data could weigh on it.
- Global risk sentiment: Shocks or shifts in risk appetite that affect capital flows to Thai assets would move the THB.
- Fiscal developments: Changes in Thai fiscal policy or public investment could influence growth prospects and currency direction.
