The Thai Baht (THB) is capitalizing on positive forecasts for 2026, with the Fiscal Policy Office predicting an average rate of 31.8 THB per US dollar, largely due to a weaker US dollar and continued capital inflows into Thailand. This strengthening appears to be a reflection of anticipated robust current account surpluses.
However, the Bank of Thailand is projecting a modest GDP growth of 1.5%, primarily stemming from challenges in exports and the potential negative effects of a stronger baht on the vital tourism sector. The Thai National Shippers’ Council has noted that while export growth is expected to rise by only 2-4% in 2026, this is mainly due to a high base from previous performance and a decrease in global orders.
In the economic landscape, factors such as industrial overcapacity in China and economic disruptions caused by recent floods in southern Thailand are expected to impede growth further, as indicated by the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking forecasting a mere 1.6% economic expansion for the year.
Recent exchange rate movements indicate that the THB is currently trading at 0.031918 against the USD, which is 2.3% higher than its three-month average. It has stabilized within a 5.8% range, further solidifying its position in the market. Similarly, the THB against the Euro is at 0.027333, 2.0% above average, while THB to GBP is at 0.023713—1.1% above its three-month average. The THB to JPY exchange rate reflects a stronger trend as well, at 5.0030, which is 3.5% above its average.
While the outlook for the THB remains optimistic, potential export slowdowns and other economic challenges could influence these projections. Businesses engaged in international transactions should keep a close watch on these developments as they can affect pricing and costs directly.
