The Thai baht (THB) is on a promising trajectory for 2026, with significant factors influencing its value against major currencies. Analysts from Thailand's Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) expect the baht to strengthen to an average of 31.8 baht per US dollar, largely due to a weakening US dollar, increased capital inflows, and a robust current account surplus.
Despite this optimistic forecast, the Bank of Thailand has projected a modest 1.5% GDP growth for 2026. Challenges such as slowing exports and the strong baht's negative impact on tourism are likely to play a role in the economic landscape. Moreover, the Thai National Shippers’ Council has pointed out that the strength of the baht could hamper export growth, which is predicted to rise by only 2-4% against a backdrop of high performance last year and declining orders.
Concerns about the economy are echoed by the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking, which anticipates a mere 1.6% economic expansion in 2026. Factors such as industrial oversupply from China and the economic fallout from floods in southern Thailand are contributing to these forecasts.
Recent market data shows that the THB to USD pair is trading at 0.031729, representing a 1.6% rise above its three-month average of 0.031233. It remains within a stable range of 0.030446 to 0.032204. The THB against the Euro (EUR) also reflects strength, sitting at 0.027270, which is 1.7% higher than the three-month average of 0.026827. This pair has been stable as well, trading between 0.026142 and 0.027427. Comparatively, the THB to GBP exchange rate is at 0.023666, slightly above its average, while the THB to JPY has seen more volatility, trading at 5.0096, indicating a 3.5% increase from its three-month average but fluctuating in a broader range of 9.8%.
These insights suggest that while the baht is expected to appreciate, businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions should remain vigilant about the economic challenges that could affect the currency’s performance in the near future.
