Outlook
The Thai baht is likely to remain within a narrow range near current levels as domestic policy actions and external sentiment interact. The Bank of Thailand’s December 2025 tightening of currency controls, aimed at dampening rapid baht strength, and the Finance Ministry’s warning that a very strong baht could hurt exporters suggest policy support to prevent excessive appreciation. Some markets, citing January 2026 commentary, see a path for a gradual, controlled depreciation to help exports and tourism and aid the broader recovery. If policy stance stays restrictive, the baht could hold or firm modestly; if policy becomes more accommodative to boost growth, the currency could soften.
Key drivers
- BoT currency controls tightened in December 2025, targeting gold traders and currency dealers to manage baht appreciation (foreign-exchange controls).
- Finance Ministry concerns that a very strong baht could hurt exporters and the export-dependent economy.
- Illicit funds flowing into Thailand, including via digital assets, contributing to baht strength and affecting tourism (illicit funds).
- January 2026 discussions among analysts of a controlled depreciation to support exports and tourism, aiding the economic recovery.
- Overall policy stance and external conditions influencing demand for the baht and capital flows.
Range
THB/USD at 0.032165 is just 1.0% above its 3-month average of 0.031859, having traded in a quite stable 4.3% range from 0.031113 to 0.032456
THB/EUR at 0.027241 is just 0.5% above its 3-month average of 0.027114, having traded in a very stable 3.1% range from 0.026701 to 0.027522
THB/GBP at 0.023844 is just 0.9% above its 3-month average of 0.023626, having traded in a very stable 4.0% range from 0.023049 to 0.023982
THB/JPY at 5.0157 is just 0.9% above its 3-month average of 4.9697, having traded in a quite stable 5.3% range from 4.8434 to 5.1007
What could change it
- Further BoT foreign-exchange policy moves, whether tightening or loosening, could redraw the near-term path for the baht.
- Implementation of a gradual, controlled depreciation stance to support exports and tourism could exert downward pressure on the baht.
- Developments in illicit funds flows, including digital-asset channels, could alter demand for the baht.
- Shifts in global dollar strength or risk sentiment could affect capital flows and baht direction.
