The Thai Baht (THB) is showing signs of strength as analysts project its appreciation against major currencies moving into 2026. The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) expects the baht to average 31.8 THB per US dollar, supported by a weak US dollar, increasing capital inflows, and a strong current account surplus.
However, some caution is advised as the Bank of Thailand forecasts GDP growth of only 1.5% in 2026. Factors contributing to this subdued outlook include a slowdown in exports and the strong baht's potential dampening effects on the tourism sector.
The Thai National Shippers’ Council has highlighted concerns regarding export growth, predicting an increase of only 2-4% due to a high base effect from previous years and softer orders. Additionally, the Joint Standing Committee projects a modest economic expansion of 1.6%, affected by challenges such as industrial overcapacity in China and recent flooding in southern Thailand.
In terms of current exchange rates, the THB/USD is trading at 0.031827, which is 1.9% above its three-month average of 0.031222. The THB/EUR is at 0.027302, up 1.8% from its average of 0.026816. The THB/GBP is slightly elevated at 0.023691, only 1.0% above its average of 0.023462. Meanwhile, the THB/JPY is trading at 4.9940, significantly above its three-month average of 4.836, marking a 3.3% increase.
Overall, while the baht is anticipated to strengthen, various economic challenges could influence its trajectory. Currency users should stay vigilant and consider these forecasts when planning international transactions in the coming months.
