Outlook
The Thai Baht may continue to appreciate in 2026, supported by a current account surplus, capital inflows, and policy settings. The Fiscal Policy Office forecasts the baht averaging around 31.8 per US dollar in 2026, while the Bank of Thailand sees growth near 1.6% for the year. The BOT’s December 2025 rate cut to 1.25% and tighter controls on baht-related dollar flows aim to stimulate activity and limit volatility, helping the currency to stay firmer. If these drivers hold, THB gains against the USD and other majors could persist; however, a sharper US rate path or risk-off sentiment could cap or reverse gains.
Key drivers
- Bank of Thailand cut the policy rate to 1.25% on December 17, 2025 to stimulate growth amid a sluggish economy.
- In December 2025 the BOT tightened scrutiny of dollar transactions, particularly in gold, as the baht appreciated to help curb volatility.
- The Fiscal Policy Office forecasts the baht to average about 31.8 per US dollar in 2026, supported by a weaker US dollar, capital inflows, and a strong current account surplus.
- The BOT projects 2026 growth around 1.6%, indicating ongoing economic challenges even as policy support remains in place.
Range
THB to USD at 0.031949 is 1.7% above its 3-month average of 0.031401, having traded in a quite stable 5.6% range from 0.030505 to 0.032216.
THB to EUR at 0.027361 is 1.5% above its 3-month average of 0.026967, having traded in a quite stable 4.8% range from 0.026256 to 0.027522.
THB to GBP at 0.023807 is just 0.9% above its 3-month average of 0.023589, having traded in a quite stable 4.8% range from 0.022892 to 0.023982.
THB to JPY at 5.0619 is 3.4% above its 3-month average of 4.8954, having traded in a fairly volatile 9.5% range from 4.6547 to 5.0969.
What could change it
- A sharper or prolonged rally in the US dollar or higher US yields could weaken the THB.
- Unexpected Thai policy shifts (additional rate cuts or changes to FX controls) or changes in the pace of policy tightening could alter the rate differentials.
- A deterioration in Thailand’s growth trajectory or a worsening current account/capital flow picture could curb THB outperformance.
- Shifts in global risk appetite or commodity/energy price moves impacting Thailand’s trade balance could influence the currency trajectory.
