US Dollar - South Korean Won Forecasting
When determining the best time to make a foreign exchange transaction, in this case the USD vs KRW, you should pay attention to the recent market trends for both currencies.
US Dollar (USD)
Key fundamentals that previously propped up the USD (such as company revenues, inflation rates and interest rates) have been rapidly eroded. However, there are drivers for a temporary shift in risk demand for the US dollar. Nothing goes down in a straight line, and the US dollar might bounce before it continues its trend lower.
The US dollar has dropped steadily for the last 3 months against nearly all major currencies.
However, as reported by Bloomberg Aug 11, the shorting of the US dollar - betting that USD will continue to drop - is becoming a crowded trade and may backfire.
Bank of America predict that an early discovery of a vaccine against the coronavirus would be a positive for the US dollar. That's because Europe and Asia have a higher chance of fresh waves of infections the longer it takes for a vaccine to be found, a scenario that's bullish for the US dollar, read more at the Bloomberg report.
In July market USD forecasts started predicting US dollar weakness during the second half of 2020. This was triggered by the mid-July european leaders delivery a historic stimulus package which was seen by market commentators as positive for the euro and hence negative for US dollar.
In early May the continuing coronavirus pandemic and an associated possible re-escalation in the US-China trade tensions has moved the market into safer currencies such as the USD and JPY.
The US dollar held its value in 2019 despite the US-China trade tensions, mainly because the greenback is still considered a safer currency to own than most others.
Read more in the article USD Forecasts.
South Korean Won (KRW)
MUFG Bank analysts predict the Korean won will perform well against the US dollar in the second half of 2020. The forecast USD/KRW at 1200.0 by the end of the third quarter and at 1185 by the end of the first quarter 2021. The expect range for the current quarter is 1175-1235.
The South Korean won was the worst-performing Asian currency in 2019.
In the first five months of the year, the won lost 6 percent of its value against the dollar on its way to a 2-year low of ₩1,190, and lost 4 percent against the euro, with weakness driven by falling exports and an alarming drop in South Korean inflation, both of which drove expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of Korea. In addition, the won is one of those currencies being used as a proxy for risk, particularly for risks relating to US-China trade.
The Bank of Korea has warned traders that it will intervene in markets to prop up the won should the rate of currency depreciation accelerate, though interventions will be “mild.”
In late May, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted a reversal in won weakness. It said that it was “just a matter of time” before investors again focused on South Korea’s strong fundamentals. The bank expects USD/KRW to fall 7 percent in the second half of the year to ₩1,110.