USD/JPY Outlook:
The USD/JPY pair is likely to decrease as it currently trades below its recent average and is near recent lows. The market is facing pressure from a weak US dollar amid limited trading conditions.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's current moderate policy contrasts with the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hikes, which support the yen.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices have increased Japan's import costs, contributing to a weaker yen at present.
• One macro factor: The upcoming New York Empire State manufacturing index could potentially pressurize the USD if the report shows a decline.
Range:
The USD/JPY is expected to drift within its recent stable range, showing little sign of breaking out in either direction.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprisingly strong US economic report could strengthen the dollar.
• Downside risk: Further declines in US manufacturing data might weaken the USD further.