USD/KRW Outlook: Likely to decrease, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows amid bearish factors for the US dollar.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve is expected to implement rate cuts, contrasting with the Bank of Korea holding its rate steady to support the won.
• Risk/commodities: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and heightened volatility—including military actions—are weighing heavily on the US dollar.
• One macro factor: The significant increase in US jobless claims reflects economic challenges, adding to downward pressure on the USD.
Range: The USD/KRW is likely to drift lower but remain within its recent range as it adjusts to current pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stabilization in US economic indicators could support the dollar's value.
• Downside risk: Escalation of geopolitical tensions could further weaken the USD against the KRW.
