USD/MXN - Rate Guide

United States Dollar (USD)

The US dollar has held its value this year despite a serious escalation in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the greenback is still considered a safer currency to own than most others. After grim employment data on June-7, the Dollar Index was up 0.5 percent on the year (it had fallen 2 percent from May’s 2-year high).

As in other parts of the world, interest rate cuts are now expected in the US following a drastic shift in economic forecasts. At least two Fed cuts are expected this year, with the first most likely to come in July.

Taking the blame for the economic downturn is US President Donald Trump, whose trade policies have set a ball rolling that could wipe $455bn from global output according to the IMF.

Read more in the article USD Forecasts.

Mexican Peso (MXN)

At 18.8 per US dollar, the Mexican peso was trading on April-20 close to its strongest level in 6 ½ months, though it was meeting significant resistance (USD/MXN support) at 18.75—a level from which the peso was repelled twice last October, in March, and once already in April.

Boosting the peso has been the thriving oil market. Oil is high on the list of Mexico’s top exports and by April-20 it was up 44 percent for the year to $65 per barrel.

Also supporting the peso has been the dovish turn by the Federal Reserve. With no increase in US interest rates projected this year, the dollar will weaken and the peso should gain value because Mexico holds high levels of dollar-denominated debt, which becomes easier to repay when dollars are cheap and US rates are low.

Earlier this year, ING said that the peso would be among 2019’s best performing emerging market currencies, though newly-formed BlueLine Asset Management said one if its first market bets would be on peso depreciation based on disappointing economic growth.

The mid-rate is the rate you will see quoted online or the news. It is actually just the half-way point (hence mid-rate) between the last rate at which the USD / MXN was traded (bought or sold) in the international markets.

All foreign exchange providers charge a fee for providing their service and this fee is usually contained within the exchange rate margin (or difference to the mid-rate). Some providers such as Transferwise will quote you the mid-rate (or close to) and charge a separate percentage fee.