This is the current USD-PHP mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market USD-PHP exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs PHP, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Philippine Peso news and forecasts.
In the third week of April the Dollar Index was rallying strongly towards the mid-97s, slightly below major resistance at 97.70, a break of which would be massively positive for the greenback. The index was up 1.7 percent year-to-date.
The dollar’s strength comes in spite of a dovish surprise in March from the Federal Reserve, which ditched two interest rate hikes from its 2019 projections. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and other important central banks also turned dovish, removing much of the incentive for selling USD.
Bloomberg research warned in April of potential for a large upcoming move in the US dollar, up or down. Over the past quarter-century, three prominent troughs in the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index were followed by dollar moves over 6-month periods worth 10-15 percent. The index was trading in mid-April at a 5-year low.
The peso suffered one of its sharpest falls in recent years on March-12 when it weakened by 93 centavos against the dollar (an amount nearly four times the peso’s average daily range) to 53.05. This ended a good run for the peso, which appreciated away from record lows (54.43) in four of the five months between October and February.
The mid-march weakness was driven by significant developments in Philippine monetary policy. The country’s central bank governor suggested there could be significant policy easing this year in the form of policy rate cuts and cuts to the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve.
The developments appeared to vindicate those analysts polled by Bloomberg in January, who collectively predicted that the peso would struggle in 2019.
An ING analyst said in March that the central bank would be comfortable with the peso between 52 and 55 per dollar, beyond which there may be market intervention. ING is forecasting the peso at 54.04 at year-end.
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