This is the current USD-TRY mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market USD-TRY exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs TRY, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Turkish Lira news and forecasts.
26-January-19: 2018 was a reasonable year for the dollar. Measured by the US Dollar Index, the greenback appreciated by 4 percent, which was much better than 2017’s 10 percent loss. It was, though, something of a stuttering end to 2018 and the dollar has had mixed fortunes in early 2019.
In December, after lifting US interest rates to 2.25-2.5 percent, the Fed lowered its expectations for future hikes due to so-called “cross currents” (China, Brexit, trade wars etc.). Skepticism among analysts over future Fed hikes has for some time been the main reason for dollar pessimism for 2019, but now, there is also the prospect of a US economic slowdown to contend with.
“A slowdown in the economy is likely to weigh on USD particularly in the second half of this year,” a CIBC researcher said in January.
Of the same opinion was an expert at ING, who argued that the dollar is soon to “embark on a gradual long-term bearish trend.”
January’s extended US government shutdown also has dollar-negative ramifications. Not only is the shutdown likely to hit first-quarter GDP growth, disagreements within Congress bode poorly for the future of potentially inflationary fiscal spending.
12-February-2019: The lira has been remarkably stable since December, having floated between 5.15 and 5.55 per dollar, with a few brief exceptions.
Though the lira is considerably stronger than its August ’18 extreme, it is still worth nearly 30 percent less than it was a year ago. In mid-2018, the lira weakened beyond 7 to the dollar (a record low), shocking investors.
From here on in, the lira stands to appreciate, or will at least be among the best performing emerging market currencies of 2019, says an analyst at ING. The analyst said in February that the lira was “the most undervalued in the whole emerging market space.”
With the US Federal Reserve now likely to slow the pace of its interest rate hikes, or stop them, the dollar is forecast to weaken, and emerging market currencies typically gain value in such conditions because their respective governments usually hold high levels of dollar-denominated debt, which becomes easier to repay when dollars are cheaper.
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