This is the current USD-TRY mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market USD-TRY exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs TRY, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Turkish Lira news and forecasts.
In the third week of April the Dollar Index was rallying strongly towards the mid-97s, slightly below major resistance at 97.70, a break of which would be massively positive for the greenback. The index was up 1.7 percent year-to-date.
The dollar’s strength comes in spite of a dovish surprise in March from the Federal Reserve, which ditched two interest rate hikes from its 2019 projections. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and other important central banks also turned dovish, removing much of the incentive for selling USD.
Bloomberg research warned in April of potential for a large upcoming move in the US dollar, up or down. Over the past quarter-century, three prominent troughs in the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index were followed by dollar moves over 6-month periods worth 10-15 percent. The index was trading in mid-April at a 5-year low.
In the second half of April, the lira slipped to its weakest level in 6 months against the dollar, at ₺5.83. It was 11.5 percent lower than its strongest level from January, but was 21.5 percent higher than its 2018 low (2018 was a crisis year for the lira).
In April, Turkey described a reform package aimed at lifting the economy out of recession. The package included billions injected into banks, reduced tax exemptions, lower corporate tax rates and a crackdown on the shadow economy; however, ratings agencies did not see many positives in the plans due to inadequate details.
TradingEconomics.com sees the lira quoted 5 percent weaker against the dollar in April 2020, at ₺6.14.
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