The USD to TRY exchange rate has recently experienced significant fluctuations, largely influenced by domestic and international economic developments. Analysts noted a sharp decline in the US dollar's value following disappointing job creation figures from the US, which fell well below expectations in July. The non-farm payroll report indicated that only 73,000 jobs were added, leading to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates in the near future. This dovish sentiment has weakened demand for the dollar, creating selling pressure amid ongoing concerns regarding the US economy.
Moreover, upcoming US factory orders data are anticipated to further impact the dollar negatively, as economists predict a sharp decline. As the US dollar serves as a pivotal benchmark for global trade, these developments are critical for investors and businesses involved in international transactions.
On the Turkish side, the lira has faced significant turmoil, hitting record lows against the dollar. Contributing factors include the recent political unrest following the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, which has heightened investor anxiety regarding Turkey’s political stability and the commitment of its finance minister to necessary economic reforms. Reports highlight that the Turkish lira has resumed its decline, exacerbated by fears of further authoritarian shifts in governance, causing the currency to tumble by 3.3% in response to these events.
At present, the USD/TRY exchange rate is hovering near 90-day highs at approximately 40.68, which is 2.7% above its three-month average of 39.61. This level indicates a period of relative stability within a 5.5% range from 38.56 to 40.68. Market forecasts suggest heightened volatility as political and economic factors on both sides continue to evolve. Investors and businesses should closely monitor these developments, as they could significantly affect the cost of international transactions involving USD and TRY.