Analysis of recent dollar → lira forecasts for 2025. We collate forecasts from respected FX analysts together with the latest US dollar to Turkish lira performance and trends.
Forecasts for USD to TRY
The USD to TRY exchange rate has recently been influenced by a combination of U.S. economic data and political developments in Turkey. The U.S. dollar (USD) managed modest gains despite disappointing consumer sentiment indicators, which have raised concerns about the potential for a U.S. recession. Analysts suggest that this weakened consumer morale is likely to temper demand for the USD in the near term. Additionally, the trade agreements announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, including a 10% tariff on UK imports, continue to shape the currency's landscape, with concerns about his administration's overall trade strategy putting pressure on the dollar.
The markets are currently edging toward a situation deemed by some as a deliberate effort by President Trump to weaken the USD to support U.S. economic interests. This theory, gaining traction in financial discussions, is tied to the ongoing tensions in global trade and may further influence currency movements as investors seek stability amidst fluctuating policies.
On the Turkish side, the situation has become increasingly volatile due to political unrest following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. This incident has led to significant concerns regarding Turkey's commitment to democratic governance and economic reforms, causing the Turkish lira (TRY) to depreciate sharply. Reports indicate that the lira has hit record lows against the dollar, emphasizing the broader challenges facing Turkey's economy, especially as it attempts to regain investor confidence.
Data shows that the USD to TRY exchange rate recently reached a 90-day high of approximately 38.86, a 3.1% increase above its three-month average of 37.69. The currency pair has traded within a relatively stable range of 7.6%, from a low of 36.12 to the aforementioned high. This upward trend underscores the impact of current events, with both U.S. economic policies and Turkish political developments shaping expectations in the currency market.
Moving forward, market participants will likely focus on how the evolving political climate in Turkey interacts with U.S. trade strategies, as these factors are pivotal in determining the future trajectory of the USD to TRY exchange rate. Financial experts advise that both emerging market dynamics and U.S. economic indicators will demand close attention from those engaged in international transactions involving these currencies.
Exchange rates can vary significantly between different currency exchange providers, so it's important to compare
US dollar (USD) to Turkish lira (TRY) rates from different sources before making a conversion.
Use our
USD to TRY calculator to see how much you could save on your international money transfers.
makes it easy to compare the Total Cost you are being charged on Dollar to Lira currency rates and the possible savings of using various providers.
It is almost impossible to predict what an exchange rate will do in the future, the best approach is to monitor the currency markets and transact when an exchange rate moves in your favour.
To help with this you can add USD/TRY to your personalised Rate Tracker to track and benefit from currency movements.
Forecasts disclaimer: Please be advised that the forecasts and analysis of market data presented on BestExchangeRates.com are solely a review and compilation of forecasts from various market experts and economists. These forecasts are not meant to reflect the opinions or views of BestExchangeRates.com or its affiliates, nor should they be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in any financial transactions. Read more