Bias: The forecast for USD/TRY is bullish-to-range-bound, as the current level is above the 90-day average and within the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold a neutral stance, while the Central Bank of Turkey is easing policy amid high inflation, creating a wider interest rate differential.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently volatile, and their movements can impact the Turkish economy significantly, affecting the TRY.
- Inflation trends: Inflation in Turkey has recently accelerated, driven by a rise in food prices, adding pressure to the currency.
Range: USD/TRY is likely to test recent highs while remaining within its 3-month trading band.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected U.S. economic report or hawkish comments from the Fed could further boost the USD.
- Downside risk: Increased political instability or severe inflation indicators from Turkey could put more pressure on the TRY.