USD/TRY Outlook: Bullish, as the pair is above its recent average and near 90-day highs, driven by ongoing concerns over Turkish inflation.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates less aggressively, allowing the USD to strengthen against the TRY.
- Risk/commodities: The US dollar's appeal is bolstered by recent stability in oil prices, providing support to the USD amid geopolitical tensions.
- One macro factor: Turkey's recent inflation rise to above 30% combined with a cautious rate cut from its Central Bank signals economic instability, further weakening the TRY.
Range: The USD/TRY is likely to hold within its recent range, but the trend suggests potential for upward movement.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant drop in US inflation could lead to reduced rate cut expectations, strengthening the USD.
- Downside risk: Unexpected worsening of Turkey's inflation situation or significant economic policy missteps could pressure the TRY further.