USD/TRY Outlook: Likely to increase, as it is trading above its recent average and near 90-day highs with support from strong U.S. labor market data.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, while Turkey's Central Bank recently cut rates, widening the yield differential favoring the USD.
• Risk/commodities: Recent declines in global oil prices may support the dollar as economic activity slows, while affecting emerging markets like Turkey.
• One macro factor: Fitch Ratings' recent positive outlook for Turkey reflects improving foreign exchange reserves, providing some support to the TRY.
Range: USD/TRY is likely to drift within its recent range as it is currently at 90-day highs, potentially testing upside levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data could lift the dollar further.
• Downside risk: Any drastic geopolitical developments affecting U.S. trade policy may weaken the dollar.