USD to TRY Forecast & Outlook
16 May 2026 • 01:06 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🟢 Mild upside
- Expected range: 45.5000 – 46.2960
- Dominant driver: ⚖️ Interest-rate differentials
- 3-month trend: 🔴 Downtrend
USD/TRY is trading close to 90-day highs near 45.50, supported by the rate differential with the US Dollar and Turkish inflation concerns. Near-term conditions suggest the pair may continue to find support around these levels, given the rate gap and heightened risk-off sentiment.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending US Dollars to Turkish Lira may remain supported, making conversions more favourable than recent levels.
- Travellers: buying Turkish Lira with USD could face ongoing support, potentially making foreign cash more advantageous.
- Businesses: paying invoices in Turkish Lira using USD may be more favourable than in recent weeks.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: US Dollar interest rates remain higher than Turkish policy, supporting USD/TRY above its 90-day average.
- Risk/commodities: global risk-off conditions, driven by deteriorating risk sentiment, boost USD demand.
- Global factors: global macro environment is currently risk averse, maintaining safe-haven flows into USD.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: a further rise in US interest rates or positive risk sentiment could strengthen USD further.
- Downside risk: a stabilisation in Turkish inflation or improved risk appetite might weaken USD/TRY, bringing it closer to recent support levels.
BER suggests comparing FX providers as finding providers with lower margins can reduce total transfer costs.