USD/TRY Outlook:
The USD/TRY is likely to increase, trading at 90-day highs and well above its recent average. A safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions underpins this outlook.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The U.S. Federal Reserve's policies support a stronger dollar compared to Turkey's easing monetary policy.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions are increasing global demand for USD.
• Macro factor: Turkey's elevated corporate foreign currency liabilities pose risks that may weaken the TRY.
Range:
Expect the USD/TRY to hold near current levels within the 3.5% range, possibly testing higher extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Continued geopolitical instability could further boost USD demand.
• Downside risk: Rapid economic recovery in Turkey could reinforce the TRY against the USD.