The USD/TRY bias is bullish-to-range-bound, as it is currently above the 90-day average and near the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve is signaling potential rate cuts in 2026, while the Central Bank of Turkey recently trimmed its benchmark rate, creating a widening gap that supports the USD.
- Risk/commodities: As oil prices have seen recent volatility, the Turkish Lira could be impacted due to Turkey's reliance on energy imports, affecting its economic stability.
- Inflation trends: Turkey's inflation recently rose, driven by increased food prices and weather-related agricultural disruptions, complicating the outlook for the Lira.
Range: The USD/TRY is likely to hold within its current range, with the potential for some drift towards the extremes.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Strong US labor market data could further boost the USD if it results in reduced expectations for Fed easing.
- Downside risk: Any dovish comments from Fed officials could lead to a weakening of the USD against the TRY.