USD/TRY Outlook:
The USD/TRY rate is likely to increase as it is trading above its recent average and near recent highs. Strong demand for the US dollar is driven by geopolitical uncertainty, making it a preferred safe-haven asset.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate adjustments are attracting global capital, supporting the USD against the TRY.
• Risk/commodities: Ongoing geopolitical tensions contribute to higher demand for the USD, while Turkey's economic volatility pressures the lira.
• One macro factor: The high inflation rate in Turkey keeps interest rates elevated, which could slow down economic growth and hurt the lira's value.
Range:
Expect the USD/TRY to test the recent high range, but it may drift subtly within its 3.5% range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive market reaction to upcoming US economic data could strengthen the USD further.
• Downside risk: A sudden improvement in Turkey's political stability might enhance confidence in the lira, leading to its appreciation.