US Dollar - New Taiwan Dollar Forecasting
When determining the best time to make a foreign exchange transaction, in this case the USD vs TWD, you should pay attention to the recent market trends for both currencies.
US Dollar (USD)
Key fundamentals that previously propped up the USD (such as company revenues, inflation rates and interest rates) have been rapidly eroded. However, there are drivers for a temporary shift in risk demand for the US dollar. Nothing goes down in a straight line, and the US dollar might bounce before it continues its trend lower.
The US dollar has dropped steadily for the last 3 months against nearly all major currencies.
However, as reported by Bloomberg Aug 11, the shorting of the US dollar - betting that USD will continue to drop - is becoming a crowded trade and may backfire.
Bank of America predict that an early discovery of a vaccine against the coronavirus would be a positive for the US dollar. That's because Europe and Asia have a higher chance of fresh waves of infections the longer it takes for a vaccine to be found, a scenario that's bullish for the US dollar, read more at the Bloomberg report.
In July market USD forecasts started predicting US dollar weakness during the second half of 2020. This was triggered by the mid-July european leaders delivery a historic stimulus package which was seen by market commentators as positive for the euro and hence negative for US dollar.
In early May the continuing coronavirus pandemic and an associated possible re-escalation in the US-China trade tensions has moved the market into safer currencies such as the USD and JPY.
The US dollar held its value in 2019 despite the US-China trade tensions, mainly because the greenback is still considered a safer currency to own than most others.
Read more in the article USD Forecasts.
New Taiwan Dollar (TWD)
NAB told Bloomberg TV that it sees a recovery in Asian currencies in the 2nd half of 2020 if the coronavirus comes under control.
The benchmark Taiwan dollar exchange rate, USD/TWD, has done little over the past 8 months; it continues to range between 30.5 and 31. The Taiwan dollar is worth 6 percent less against the greenback than its 2018 high.
One major currency that TWD is doing well against is the Australian dollar. TWD struck a 10-year high against the Aussie in January (21.16 per AUD), and remains close to that level in early May.
Disappointing export data (March data showed exports falling year-on-year for the fifth consecutive month) is perhaps evidence of a global tech slowdown that could put pressure on Taiwan’s currency this year due to its sensitivity to corporate earnings (high earnings create substantial capital inflows into Taiwanese equities).
Forecast: ING said in late April that it was concerned that any below-forecast sales numbers in the smart phone industry could weigh on TWD. “As such,” ING said, “against the US dollar we've revised our [year-end] TWD forecast from 30.40 to 30.95.”