Bias: range-bound, current USD/HUF sits above the 90-day average (a longer-term average) and in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: The Fed is expected to cut rates later this year, widening the policy gap with Hungary where the central bank has kept policy tight, supporting the USD.
Risk/commodities: A risk-off mood from geopolitics and tariff uncertainty keeps the dollar bid; energy prices are not the main driver, but a risk tone matters for the pair.
One macro factor: Hungary’s core inflation remains elevated (the underlying price rise excluding food and energy), delaying rate cuts and keeping the forint under pressure.
Range: USD/HUF is likely to drift within the three-month range, with occasional tests of the lower bound if US data disappoints, and traders will watch US payrolls and inflation data for confirmation.
What could change it:
Upside risk: stronger US payrolls or a hawkish Federal Reserve signal would push the dollar higher.
Downside risk: softer US inflation and expectations for earlier Fed easing weigh on the dollar and help the forint recover.
