Forecasts for BTC to USD
Bias: Range-bound: BTC/USD sits above its 90-day average but in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: Bitcoin has no central bank, so USD policy expectations drive risk appetite and BTC moves.
Risk/commodities: BTC tracks risk appetite and USD swings; stronger USD can cap gains while a firmer mood for risk can support modest moves higher.
Macro factor: Fed policy expectations point to possible rate cuts toward a neutral stance in 2026, shaping BTC/USD, and a softer USD would support risk-taking in crypto.
Range: BTC/USD is likely to drift inside the three-month range, with occasional tests toward extremes, depending on headlines and dollar moves, as traders weigh macro cues and crypto-specific headlines.
What could change it:
Upside risk: Dovish Fed messaging or clearer signs of easier policy could lift BTC toward the upper end of the range.
Downside risk: A surprise in US jobs data that strengthens the USD or geopolitics that boost the dollar could push BTC lower.
