Forecasts for BTC to USD
Bias: BTC/USD is bearish-to-range-bound, around 5% below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: Bitcoin has no central bank; USD is guided by the Fed, with expectations for rate cuts and a gradual normalization of policy, and a clearer easing path could soften the dollar and limit BTC downside.
- Risk/commodities: Oil volatility remains elevated; when energy costs rise, the dollar tends to strengthen and risk assets including BTC tend to soften, especially in periods of tighter liquidity.
- Macro factor: US payrolls and unemployment data soon will shape Fed easing bets; stronger data could lift the dollar and press BTC lower.
Range: BTCUSD is likely to drift within the 3-month range, sticking near the lower end as volatility remains elevated.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: a dovish Fed surprise or stronger crypto adoption could lift BTC.
- Downside risk: solid US data or a hawkish Fed stance could push BTC lower.
