Forecasts for BTC to USD
Bias: The bias for BTC/USD is bullish-to-range-bound, as it is currently above the 90-day average and in the upper half of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: Bitcoin operates without a central bank, unlike the US Dollar, which benefits from the Federal Reserve's recent signals of a hawkish stance, supporting USD demand.
- Risk/commodities: Ongoing fluctuations in oil prices relate to Bitcoin's appeal, as higher oil prices tend to increase interest in alternative investments like Bitcoin during market uncertainty.
- One macro factor: Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to recent US airstrikes in Venezuela, could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional market risks.
Range: BTC/USD is likely to test extremes within its recent 3-month high volatility, as ongoing news could lead to sharp price movements.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant positive regulatory development in cryptocurrency could boost Bitcoin's attractiveness.
- Downside risk: Dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials could lead to a stronger USD, negatively impacting Bitcoin demand.
