The exchange rate forecast for the Indian Rupee (INR) against the UAE Dirham (AED) reflects significant downward pressure on the INR due to several recent developments. As of November 11, 2025, the INR is trading at 90-day lows of approximately 0.040984 AED, representing a 1.4% decline from its three-month average of 0.041555. This downturn can be attributed to a number of factors impacting the INR.
Firstly, the Indian Rupee reached an all-time low of 88.62 against the US dollar on September 23, 2025. This historic depreciation was driven by increased fees associated with US H-1B visas and a marked decrease in foreign equity inflows. Analysts indicate that these factors reduced market confidence in the INR, worsening its position relative to other currencies, including the AED.
Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India's proactive measures to stabilize the rupee, including expanding short dollar forward positions by $6 billion in October, can only partially mitigate the currency's weakening trajectory. Reports suggest that strong importer demand for dollars has consistently pressured the rupee, as businesses hedge against currency volatility driven by U.S. tariff concerns and immigration-related policies.
Further compounding these challenges is a slowdown in India's manufacturing exports and a narrowing policy rate differential in comparison to the US. This combination of diminishing foreign direct investment and weak export performance is likely to sustain downward pressure on the INR, as echoed by economists who forecast continued struggles for the currency in the near term.
In contrast, the AED is experiencing some appreciation against various Asian currencies, including the INR. A currency swap agreement with Turkey and a recent interest rate cut by the UAE Central Bank that aligns with US monetary policy have further bolstered the AED's stability. This favorable environment also enhances the value of remittances sent by UAE expatriates back to their home countries, providing a positive backdrop for the AED.
Given the current market conditions and the impact of both macroeconomic factors and central bank interventions, analysts project that the INR may remain under pressure in the near future. Consequently, businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions should be mindful of these dynamics when planning their currency strategies.
