Recent analysts' forecasts indicate a complex interplay between the Indian Rupee (INR) and the Australian Dollar (AUD), reflecting ongoing shifts in market sentiment and economic policies.
The AUD initially experienced modest support following a larger-than-expected trade surplus reported for September, driven by a rebound in exports. However, this momentum was short-lived as risk appetite declined globally, leading to a significant drop in AUD exchange rates. Traders are now closely monitoring China's trade figures, as a slowdown in import growth could further weaken the AUD.
On the other hand, the INR has shown signs of resilience, particularly after the Reserve Bank of India's market intervention where it sold between $3 billion to $5 billion to stabilize the currency. This effort resulted in the largest single-day gain for the INR in four months. Analysts have observed a marked shift in market sentiment, with increased demand for rupee call options indicating growing confidence in the INR's ability to recover against the backdrop of U.S. tariffs and rising gold imports.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been navigating a challenging environment as well. An interest rate cut in August 2025 aimed at stimulating growth has placed pressure on the AUD, while global trade tensions and fluctuations in commodity prices further complicate its outlook. Australia's economy, heavily reliant on its commodity exports, may see volatility in the AUD if global demand shifts, especially from its largest trading partner, China.
In reviewing the INR/AUD exchange rate, current trading levels reflect stability, with the INR to AUD quoted at 0.017375—just above its three-month average. The pair has traded within a relatively stable range of 5.0% recently, from 0.017009 to 0.017861. Analysts suggest that these factors and the current geopolitical landscape suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for the INR against the AUD in the short to medium term. As the markets adjust to changes in both economic policies and global sentiment, careful monitoring will be necessary for individuals and businesses engaged in international transactions.
