Recent forecasts for the INR to EUR exchange rate reveal several factors influencing both currencies. The euro (EUR) experienced initial gains due to a weaker USD but subsequently faced downward pressure due to renewed concerns over Europe-Russia tensions, especially regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that any downturn in German factory orders and upcoming data for Eurozone growth may further affect the EUR's outlook. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to its G7 stance on market-determined exchange rates, aiming to avoid competitive devaluations.
On the Indian rupee (INR) side, there are significant headwinds. The INR has reached a record low of 90.42 per U.S. dollar, a notable 5% depreciation over the past year. This decline is largely attributed to a widening trade deficit, impacted by higher U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and substantial foreign investment outflows amounting to nearly $17 billion in 2025. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is reportedly allowing the rupee to weaken, prioritizing stability and reducing allowed volatility rather than explicitly defending a particular exchange level.
Analysts from major financial institutions predict that without a swift resolution to the U.S. trade situation, the INR may continue to slide further, with projections indicating a potential fall to 92 per USD. This depreciation creates additional pressure on the INR against the EUR, which itself might also be affected by broader economic uncertainties in the Eurozone.
Current market data shows that the INR to EUR exchange rate is at 0.009546, approximately 1.5% below its three-month average of 0.009688. The INR has traded within a stable 3.4% range, while EUR remains sensitive to inflationary pressures within the Eurozone, as inflation recently ticked up to 2.2%, reinforcing expectations of steady ECB rates.
Furthermore, global oil prices are currently experiencing volatility, with OIL to USD trading near 14-day highs around 63.75 and positionally lower than its three-month average. Fluctuations in oil prices often correlate with exchange rates; thus, both the EUR and INR may continue to be impacted by movements in oil markets in the near future.
In summary, the INR is under considerable pressure due to domestic economic challenges, while the EUR faces headwinds from geopolitical risks in Europe. Currency market participants should remain vigilant of ongoing economic developments in both regions.
