The market bias for the INR to HKD exchange rate is currently range-bound.
Key drivers for this stability include the interest rate differential, as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to maintain stable policy rates while the Reserve Bank of India faces pressure from potential depreciation. Economic growth expectations for India remain upbeat, supporting the INR despite forecasts indicating a weakening trend towards 90–92 per USD by 2026.
In the near term, the INR to HKD rate is likely to trade in a stable range, reflecting current levels with minor fluctuations.
An upside risk could occur if there's a positive development in US-India trade negotiations, potentially boosting the INR's value. Conversely, a downside risk looms from continued foreign portfolio outflows, which could lead to further INR depreciation against the HKD.