The exchange rate forecast for the Indian Rupee (INR) against the Singapore dollar (SGD) has shown notable activity in recent weeks, with the INR climbing to 60-day highs near 0.014793. This represents a 1.0% increase above its three-month average of 0.014643, and the pair has traded within a stable 2.7% range over this period.
Recent analysis highlights several key factors influencing the INR's movement. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) intervention on October 15, 2025, where it sold $3 billion to $5 billion, played a crucial role in stabilizing the rupee amidst pressures from rising U.S. tariffs and increased gold imports. This action resulted in the rupee's largest single-day gain in four months and signaled a shift in market sentiment. Options markets have reflected this sentiment, with a notable tilt favoring INR call options over puts, indicating increasing market confidence.
Conversely, challenges remain due to the trade tensions exacerbated by the U.S. imposing significant tariffs on Indian exports. Analysts suggest that these elevated tariffs, along with a stronger U.S. dollar stemming from rising U.S. yields, continue to exert downward pressure on the rupee.
For the Singapore Dollar, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained its monetary policy amid a backdrop of economic resilience. The GDP growth of 2.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025 exceeded expectations, affirming the strength of Singapore's economy. Moreover, with core inflation forecasts being revised downward, the MAS appears to be confident in its current policy stance, though it may need to consider potential impacts from U.S. tariffs on key exports.
Overall, the INR benefits from recent RBI interventions and a positive shift in market sentiment, while the SGD gains from a resilient economic performance. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic for the INR/SGD exchange rate, supported by both monetary actions and economic fundamentals, although external trade dynamics will continue to play a significant role.
