The Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) exchange rates have recently exhibited significant volatility due to evolving geopolitical events and central bank interventions. As of October 19, 2025, the INR to THB exchange rate is approaching 30-day lows near 0.3627, which is 1.1% below its three-month average of 0.3669. The INR has operated within a stable range of 0.3581 to 0.3742 over this period.
Recent analysis indicates that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) intervention on October 15, where it sold between $3 billion to $5 billion in an effort to stabilize the rupee, has had a marked impact. Following this intervention, analysts observed a notable shift in market sentiment, with demand for rupee options increasing as indicated by the falling 1-month 25-delta risk-reversal for the USD/INR pair. Increased rupee support was attributed to these dynamics, despite ongoing pressure from U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and the rising costs associated with gold imports.
For the Thai Baht, recent developments include efforts by the Thai government and the Bank of Thailand to address the currency's recent strength, which reached a four-year high. The central bank's actions to prevent excessive appreciation aim to safeguard key sectors such as exports and tourism, which are vital to Thailand's economy. The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions pose a significant risk to Thailand's growth outlook, which has led to concerns regarding its economic trajectory.
Additionally, crude oil prices, currently at $65.07, are 1.7% below their three-month average, fluctuating within a volatile 15% range. Such price movements are likely to further influence both the INR and THB, given the interconnectedness of energy prices to currency valuations.
Overall, while short-term factors present challenges, particularly for the INR due to external pressures, the interventions by central banks in both India and Thailand may provide some cushioning for market sentiment moving forward. Currency market participants should remain vigilant to both domestic economic policies and broader geopolitical developments in the coming weeks.
