The Indian Rupee (INR) has recently experienced significant pressure, reaching a record low of 90.42 per U.S. dollar, which translates to INR trading at approximately 0.3537 THB. Analysts attribute this decline to several factors, including a widening trade deficit exacerbated by high U.S. tariffs on Indian exports, which has increased demand for foreign currencies. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has shifted its policy stance, allowing for a weaker rupee to better address the challenges of decreasing foreign investment inflows, which have seen nearly $17 billion withdrawn from Indian equities this year. In the absence of a swift resolution to trade issues with the U.S., some private lenders predict that the rupee could fall even further to 92 against the dollar.
On the other hand, the Thai Baht (THB) is facing its own set of challenges but has remained relatively strong. The Bank of Thailand has taken measures to curb baht appreciation, indicating that the central bank is closely monitoring the financial environment. Despite this, Thailand's economy is projected to grow by only 2% in 2025, primarily hindered by a strong baht and external pressures such as U.S. tariffs. Moreover, Thailand has reported continued negative inflation, which has raised expectations for a potential interest rate cut to stimulate economic growth.
Recent data shows that the INR to THB exchange rate is at 90-day lows, 2.9% below its three-month average, having fluctuated within a stable range. Furthermore, crude oil prices reached a 14-day high, which may indirectly affect the THB by influencing trade balances and import costs. Analysts suggest that movements in oil prices will be crucial for future baht performance, particularly given the reliance on tourism and exports for economic health.
In summary, the INR is facing downward pressure due to trade imbalances and reduced foreign investments, while the THB is influenced by domestic monetary policies and external economic factors. As both currencies navigate a complex landscape, businesses and individuals engaged in international transactions should stay informed on these developments.
