Recent forecasts indicate a challenging environment for the Indian rupee (INR) against the Thai baht (THB). Analysts highlight that the INR has been subject to various mixed influences, particularly amid U.S. trade tensions and rising oil prices. The recent imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. on goods from Taiwan has contributed to a decline in the dollar, but ongoing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan could add to volatility, impacting investor sentiment.
Despite these pressures, currency traders suggest that the rupee's risks are "broadly balanced" at its current levels. The rupee has weakened against the dollar, driven by concerns about surging energy prices that threaten to elevate inflation in India, which is heavily reliant on oil imports. As fears grow regarding potential interest rate hikes due to inflation, investors have begun to pivot away from Asian currencies, including the INR. Analysts speculate that upcoming U.S. economic policies under President Trump, such as reduced corporate taxes, could further bolster the dollar, exacerbating pressure on the INR.
For the Thai baht, the situation mirrors that of other regional currencies, with a significant decline in value following Trump's tariff announcements affecting China. The 36% tariff on goods from Thailand has also contributed to a loss of confidence, amid an overall downturn in emerging Asian currencies. Market observers noted that the baht experienced a steep slide of approximately 2%, while the regional outlook has soured drastically, erasing earlier gains made in January.
Looking at recent exchange data, the INR to THB rate stands at 0.3796, which is notably 1.7% below its three-month average of 0.386. This rate has remained relatively stable, oscillating within a 7.5% range of 0.3760 to 0.4042. Influencing these rates are ongoing trends in oil prices, with OIL trading at $68.80, reflecting a 3.2% increase above its three-month average. Price fluctuations in the oil market carry significant implications for both the INR and THB since both economies are sensitive to changes in energy costs.
Overall, the forecasts for the INR to THB exchange rate suggest continued volatility influenced by external trade policies and internal economic conditions, necessitating caution among individuals and businesses engaged in international transactions.