The recent exchange rate analysis for the Indian Rupee (INR) against the Thai baht (THB) indicates a relatively stable INRTHB rate at 0.3667, which is just below its three-month average, displaying a trading range of approximately 5.7% from 0.3581 to 0.3786. This stability is influenced by several key factors affecting both currencies.
For the INR, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) intervention has been paramount. Analysts highlight the RBI’s consistent efforts to defend the 88.80 level against the U.S. dollar through dollar-rupee swaps and market interventions, providing mild support to the rupee amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and the impact of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. Notably, the anticipation of significant foreign capital inflows from upcoming IPOs is expected to offer temporary support for the INR.
Conversely, the Thai Baht has been influenced by its own set of developments. Recent trade negotiations with the U.S. and a newly approved 44 billion baht stimulus program aimed at countering economic slowdowns have been significant. These measures may enhance the attractiveness of the Baht, particularly as Thailand grapples with six consecutive months of negative inflation, pressuring economic sentiment.
Trends in global oil prices are also relevant, as the THB may be affected by fluctuations in oil prices, which have been volatile recently. The current price of Brent Crude oil at $62.73 is notably 7.2% below its three-month average, which could impact the Thai economy and, by extension, the THB.
Economists and analysts predict potential volatility in the INRTHB exchange rate due to these combined pressures. The balance of factors affecting both currencies suggests that while the INR has some support from RBI interventions and upcoming foreign inflows, the overall market sentiment may remain cautious due to geopolitical issues and trade dynamics. As the economic situations evolve in both India and Thailand, further fluctuations in the exchange rate can be expected, making it advisable for individuals and businesses engaged in international transactions to monitor these developments closely.
