The Indian Rupee (INR) to Thai Baht (THB) exchange rate has recently shown downward pressure, intensifying the need for strategic currency management. As of the latest data, the INR to THB pair is nearing a 30-day low at approximately 0.3612, reflecting a 1.2% decline from its three-month average of 0.3656. Analysts note that the INR's recent performance has been constrained within a relatively stable range of 4.3%, fluctuating between 0.3581 and 0.3736.
Several factors contribute to the INR's weakness against the backdrop of mounting economic challenges. A record low of 88.62 against the US dollar on September 23, 2025, was primarily attributed to increased H-1B visa fees and subdued foreign investment inflows. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken measures to defend the rupee, expanding its short dollar forward positions by $6 billion in October, signaling proactive intervention in a stressful currency environment. Ongoing high demand for dollars from importers, alongside weakening manufacturing exports and a narrowing policy rate differential with the US, continues to hinder the INR's recovery.
Conversely, the Thai Baht has experienced undue strength due to supportive government and central bank measures aimed at curbing the currency's rapid appreciation. In September, the Bank of Thailand intervened to manage the baht's rise, which hit a four-year high and has posed challenges to Thailand's export and tourism sectors. The joint effort by the government and BoT included reviewing capital inflows and considering a tax on gold trading, both of which are intended to stabilize the baht without undermining economic competitiveness.
The broader context of global oil prices may also indirectly affect the INR/THB exchange rate dynamics. Currently, oil prices are at $62.56 per barrel, a notable 4.4% below the three-month average, adding to the pressures faced by the Thai baht, which is sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices given Thailand's status as a net oil importer.
Overall, market experts foresee challenging times for the INR against the THB, given the combination of domestic economic headwinds for India and the proactive measures taken by Thai authorities to manage their currency strengths. For businesses and individuals engaging in currency transactions, careful monitoring of these developments will be essential for informed decision-making in the current forex market landscape.
