The exchange rate forecast for the Indian Rupee (INR) against the Thai Baht (THB) is influenced by several recent economic developments and market sentiments. As of early December 2025, the INR has depreciated significantly, approaching a historic low of 90.42 per U.S. dollar, following a 5% decline over the past year. Analysts attribute this drop to a range of factors including a widening trade deficit, exacerbated by heightened U.S. tariffs on Indian exports, which has increased demand for foreign currency and subsequently pressured the rupee. Foreign investment outflows, nearing $17 billion in 2025, have also intensified the rupee's decline. The Reserve Bank of India's current strategy appears to prioritize market stabilization over a fixed exchange rate, allowing for a controlled depreciation.
In contrast, the Thai Baht has shown strength, but the Bank of Thailand is implementing measures to curb its appreciation, which could affect its valuation against the INR. The Thai central bank is considering increasing transaction thresholds for non-repatriated foreign income and monitoring gold-related foreign exchange activities to manage the baht's value. Additionally, Thailand's unique economic pressures, such as ongoing negative inflation and anticipated interest rate cuts to stimulate growth, may introduce volatility to the baht's value.
Current market data indicates that INR to THB is at 90-day lows near 0.3473, sitting 4.4% below its three-month average of 0.3633, which reflects the rupee's recent struggle amid a relatively stable trading range. The THB, facing its own challenges, could maintain its value if the strong currency policies and measures prove effective.
Furthermore, with oil prices hitting 30-day lows near $61.20—nearly 4.9% below the three-month average—there could be indirect impacts on both currencies. The negative trends in oil prices may affect economic growth and trade balances for both India and Thailand, creating a backdrop of increased uncertainty in international currency exchange.
Market watchers and analysts continue to monitor these developments closely, as strategies employed by both the Reserve Bank of India and the Bank of Thailand will play critical roles in shaping the INR to THB exchange rate in the upcoming months. Understanding these dynamics may provide individuals and businesses opportunities to navigate international transactions effectively.
