Forecasts for SAR to EUR
The current exchange rate for the Saudi Riyal (SAR) to Euro (EUR) stands at 0.2349, which is 2.2% below its three-month average of 0.2402. Analysts note that the SAR/EUR pair has experienced a notable level of volatility, trading within a 10.5% range from 0.2325 to 0.2569 in recent weeks.
The euro has experienced pressure due to the recent release of Germany's unemployment figures, which indicated an increase of 34,000 unemployed individuals, marking the largest monthly rise since July 2022. This development, alongside the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the conflict in Ukraine and trade tensions with the United States, continues to weigh on the euro's performance. Economists emphasize that the current trade war and the EU's dependence on energy supplies from Russia contribute to risks regarding economic stability in the Eurozone.
For the euro to strengthen against the SAR, analysts highlight that improvements in economic conditions within the Eurozone and positive developments in EU-US trade talks will be essential. The European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions regarding interest rates and inflation will also play a crucial role in shaping the euro's forward trajectory.
On the other side, the recent decrease in oil prices, with Brent Crude OIL/USD trading at 14-day lows near 63.90 and 5.1% below its three-month average, could ultimately influence the SAR's strength as it is pegged to the US dollar. The energy sector's volatility directly impacts currency movements, particularly for the SAR, given its oil-dependent economy. Experts suggest that continued fluctuations in oil prices could contribute to further volatility in the SAR/EUR exchange rate.
Looking ahead, the performance of the euro will be contingent upon macroeconomic indicators, ECB policy actions, and global market sentiment. Meanwhile, the Saudi Riyal's fixed exchange rate to the US dollar provides a level of stability, though external factors such as oil prices and geopolitical tensions will continue to exert influence. Currency market participants are advised to closely monitor these dynamics for potential impact on international transactions.
