The exchange rate forecast for the Saudi Riyal (SAR) to Indian Rupee (INR) remains under pressure from prevailing economic conditions influencing the INR. The SAR is currently stable due to its peg to the U.S. dollar (1 USD = 3.75 SAR), providing a degree of predictability, especially as it trades at 14-day lows near 23.88 against the INR. This rate represents just a slight increase of 0.7% above its three-month average of 23.72, indicating a relative stability within a narrow range over recent months.
Analysts are increasingly concerned about the INR’s trajectory, following its historic low of 90.42 per U.S. dollar, representing a 5% depreciation in the past year. The ongoing trade deficit and significant foreign investment outflows—nearly $17 billion withdrawn from Indian equities—are driving the demand for foreign currency and, subsequently, pressuring the rupee. This situation is further exacerbated by a 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Indian exports.
Recent remarks from currency strategists indicate a probable continuation of the INR’s decline unless a swift trade agreement with the U.S. resolves some of the underlying economic challenges. One forecast suggests the rupee could fall to 92 per U.S. dollar in the absence of such a deal.
Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India’s shift in policy to tolerate a weaker rupee, focusing instead on reducing volatility, indicates that pressures on the INR are likely to persist. Economists are warning that this could contribute to a firmer SAR to INR exchange rate if the current macroeconomic trends do not reverse, as the stable peg of the riyal provides insulation against some external pressures.
As circumstances evolve, businesses and individuals looking to convert SAR to INR should remain cautiously attentive to these movements, as they may present both risks and opportunities in managing future international transactions.
