Recent forecasts for the exchange rate between the Saudi Riyal (SAR) and the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) suggest a tense outlook influenced by varied economic factors in both countries. As of late October 2023, the SAR to PKR exchange rate is positioned at 90-day lows near 74.89, reflecting a slight decline of 0.6% from its three-month average of 75.38. This indicates minimal volatility, as the rate has remained within a stable range of 74.89 to 76.06.
The Saudi Riyal is firmly pegged to the US dollar at a fixed rate of approximately 3.75 per dollar, providing a level of stability to the currency. Analysts highlight that this peg, combined with the Kingdom's economic resilience, should keep the Riyal relatively stable against the PKR in the short term.
In contrast, the Pakistani Rupee faces considerable challenges that could impact its value against the SAR. Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions have led to a significant depreciation of the PKR, resulting in a 12% decline against the US dollar since January 2025. Experts predict that unless these geopolitical issues are resolved, the exchange rate may deteriorate further, potentially reaching 100 PKR to USD by early 2026.
The State Bank of Pakistan has made efforts to support the Rupee by intervening in the foreign exchange market, purchasing approximately $9 billion to bolster reserves. This represents a significant commitment, yet many forecasters remain cautious about the long-term effectiveness of such measures given the complexity of current economic conditions.
Additionally, Pakistan's recent deal with the IMF, which involved tough economic reforms, aims to stabilize the Rupee over time; however, the immediate outlook may still involve inflationary pressures that complicate the situation. Recent crackdowns on black market currency trading may provide a stabilizing effect, yet analysts warn that substantial improvement will take time.
Overall, while the SAR appears stable, the PKR's trajectory is precarious. The fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions and economic reforms necessitate close monitoring for those engaged in international transactions between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
