This is the current AUD-IDR mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-IDR exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs IDR, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah news and forecasts.
Improved risk appetite, thriving commodities markets and better data from China helped lift the Australian dollar through March and into the second half of April. Against the US dollar, the Aussie was quoted at US$0.715 on April-22.
In March, both Westpac and JP Morgan predicted an Aussie slide to US$0.68 in the second half of the year. Those banks were at least more optimistic than HSBC, which argued in April for US$0.66 based on housing market weakness, high debt-to-GDP levels and continued strength in the US dollar.
Bearishness wasn’t unanimous, though, with NAB forecasting Aussie appreciation at least until mid-year; it predicted US$0.74 by the end of June.
The RBA will be happy with a weaker currency, HSBC said. The central bank has recently shifted to a dovish bias (what should be an across-the-board negative for AUD), saying lower Australian interest rates will “likely be appropriate” if inflation doesn’t pick up.
In the second week of March, the rupiah experienced its largest one-day loss in 8 months. Indonesia’s currency bore the brunt of a carry trade reversal, fuelled by an increase in investor concerns over global growth after the ECB announced it had cut growth forecasts (other central banks also cut forecasts in early 2019). The rupiah weakened to a 2-month low of 14,305 to the dollar, though this was still nearly 7 percent stronger than lows from October.
A positive resolution to US-China trade talks will likely boost the rupiah. These were ongoing at the time of writing. April's general election adds uncertainty to the currency's outlook.
At the start of the year, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research advised making bets on rupiah appreciation for 2019; he described the rupiah as one of his “top trades” for the year. The rupiah will be strongly supported, the researcher said, once the Fed begins to slow down or pause on US interest rate hikes, likely in the second half of the year.
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