The Swiss franc (CHF) faces considerable headwinds following the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) decision to maintain its key interest rate at 0%, amid concerns surrounding new U.S. tariffs affecting Swiss exports. Analysts have indicated that this stance will likely persist through 2026, as the SNB projects modest growth of less than 1% and rising unemployment, reflecting a cautious outlook for the Swiss economy.
The implementation of a 39% tariff on Swiss exports by the U.S. has created significant volatility, resulting in a decline in Switzerland's current account surplus from 25 billion francs to 10 billion francs in Q2 2025. This shift is largely attributed to fluctuations in gold exports, which are heavily influenced by tariff-related uncertainties. Economists have noted that the SNB's losses of CHF 15.3 billion reported for the first half of 2025 further underscore the economic strain brought on by these external pressures.
In terms of exchange rates, the CHF is currently trading at 14-day lows against the USD near 1.2492, remaining within its 3-month average range. The CHF to EUR pair is trading at 1.0714, slightly above its 3-month average, indicating stable conditions. Conversely, the CHF to GBP has reached 90-day highs at 0.9372, reflecting a stronger performance within its stable range. Additionally, the CHF to JPY has also seen an uptick, currently at 187.2, above its 3-month average.
Market participants should remain vigilant, as the potential for further fluctuations exists, primarily driven by ongoing tariff negotiations and the broader economic implications of these developments. Forecasters advise businesses and individuals involved in international transactions to consider these factors in their planning to mitigate potential risks.
