The Swiss franc (CHF) remains under pressure as recent developments have shifted its trajectory. On December 4, 2025, the announcement of significant tariff reductions by the U.S. government is expected to inject approximately $6 billion into the Swiss economy, lowering the tariff on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%. This change may provide a much-needed boost to Swiss exports; however, uncertainty surrounding such tariffs had previously caused a notable slump in the currency.
Despite the anticipated benefits from tariff adjustments, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is set to maintain its policy rate at 0% in the upcoming decision on December 11, 2025. Economists do not see the recent dip in inflation to 0% as a justification for reintroducing negative interest rates, underscoring the restrictive monetary environment the CHF continues to face.
In a contrasting move, UBS has revised its CHF forecasts downwards, citing strong fundamentals and global uncertainties that maintain the franc as a preferred defensive currency. The revised outlook for EUR/CHF at 0.93 through June 2026 reflects a cautious market sentiment, down from previous expectations of 0.95.
Additionally, the SNB reported a substantial loss of CHF 15.3 billion for the first half of 2025, primarily resulting from significant losses on foreign currency holdings. This scenario highlights the challenges the SNB must navigate amid ongoing global economic volatility.
Recent currency data indicates that the CHF to USD is currently trading at 1.2443, slightly below its three-month average of 1.2512, with stable trading within a 3.1% range. Likewise, the CHF to EUR is near 90-day lows at 1.0684, just marginally below its average, while the CHF to GBP has also reached a 30-day low at 0.9334. These movements reflect the currency's volatility in the wake of economic pressures.
With the SNB's stance and global economic conditions continuing to shape investor sentiment, the outlook for the CHF remains cautiously optimistic, buoyed by the potential benefits from reduced tariffs but tempered by underlying monetary policy constraints and recent financial losses.
