Bias: range-bound, USD/DKK sits near the 90-day average and in the middle of the 3-month range, with little impetus for a decisive move.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve is expected to move toward a neutral stance with rate cuts in 2026, while Danmarks Nationalbank keeps policy aligned with the ECB and defends the peg, and policy timing will depend on inflation and growth.
• Macro factor: US labor market data, in particular payrolls and unemployment trends, will shape Fed easing expectations that will influence the pace and timing of rate moves.
• Risk/commodities: Oil price volatility and risk appetite shifts influence USD demand and Danish currency stability.
Range: USD/DKK is likely to drift within the 3-month band, staying near the middle and avoiding sharp moves toward extremes over the coming session.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: a hawkish Fed shift or stronger payrolls could lift the dollar and push USD/DKK higher.
• Downside risk: softer payrolls or signs of Fed easing could weigh on the dollar and pull USD/DKK lower.
