Pound Sterling - Canadian Dollar Forecasting
When determining the best time to make a foreign exchange transaction, in this case the GBP vs CAD, you should pay attention to the recent market trends for both currencies.
Pound Sterling (GBP)
In the 2nd half of August market analysts started forecasting risk to the downside for the pound from US 1.33 given the tight 7 week deadline for Brexit combined with the drop in domestic demand due to the pandemic.
US dollar weakness has helped the embattled pound continue its recovery off June and early July lows. Despite this brief upturn, the outlook remains pessimistic as Brexit uncertainty and questions over the economy’s ability to rebound after the pandemic weigh on the currency.
In late July pound sterling is heading back towards US1.30 due to US dollar weakness. This is a remarkable change of fortunes for GBP which was sold-off after the Brexit vote and again after the virus forced a lockdown in London, the world’s largest foreign-exchange centre. Against the dollar, sterling touched the lowest level in 35 years (below US1.16) in March as traders sought the safety of the USD.
The coronavirus pandemic has replaced Brexit in the headlines and means that the deadline for a trade deal with the Eurozone this year could either be pushed back, delaying a risk for the currency, or see more favorable terms given to the U.K.
Read more in the article GBP Forecasts.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
The combination of an eroded US interest yield advantage, a broadly positive riskon mood and renewed euro demand, could be a catalyst to push the Canadian dollar along. The combination of an eroded US interest yield advantage, a broadly positive riskon mood and renewed euro demand, could be a catalyst to push the Canadian dollar along.
The Canadian dollar was range bound during the second half of 2019 oscillating between US75c and US76.5c. Mid-year the loonie stormed ahead in June and July, rising to what turned out to be the 2019 high against the US dollar of US76.7cents and to 8-month highs against the euro, pound, Australian and New Zealand dollars. Against the Aussie, a minimal additional increase would take CAD to a 9-year high.
Supporting the loonie was a 10 percent rise in the oil price (oil is among Canada’s most exported products but is volatile and can’t be relied upon), a large and welcome jump in inflation, and dovishness at major central banks of the world, including the Federal Reserve, ECB and RBA.
Read more in the article CAD Forecasts.