GBP/USD Outlook:
The GBP/USD is slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as it trades above its recent average and lacks a clear driver. While the pound remains resilient, upcoming UK economic data will be crucial for further direction.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is cautious with interest rate changes, while the U.S. Federal Reserve signals more aggressive cuts, creating pressure on the GBP.
• Risk/commodities: Recent fluctuations in oil prices contribute to broader market volatility, affecting both currencies.
• One macro factor: The UK’s latest jobs report is expected, which could signal further weakness in the pound if it reveals slowing labor market conditions.
Range:
GBP/USD is likely to hold steady within its recent trading range, pending clearer signals from economic data.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected jobs report could boost the GBP.
• Downside risk: Weaker employment data that reassures markets of a slowing UK economy could lead to a decline in the GBP.
