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GBP to USD Forecast & Outlook

Latest GBP to USD forecasts including bank predictions, key market drivers and recent trends for GBP/USD. See where analysts expect the pair to move and the factors likely to influence it.

GBP to USD Forecast & Outlook

25 Jul 2026 • 00:26 GMT

GBP/USD 1.3315

📊 Forecast snapshot

  • Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
  • Expected range: 1.2940 – 1.3320
  • Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
  • 3-month trend: ⚪ Range-bound

Currently, GBP/USD is trading close to its 14-day lows near 1.3315, still below the 3-month average of 1.3405. The pair is influenced by risk-off sentiment, with USD supported by geopolitical tensions and elevated inflation pressures. Over the next few sessions, the pair may remain supported by safe-haven flows, keeping it near recent lows, as risk aversion and global risk factors persist.

💸 Transfer implications

  • Expats: sending money to the US may find USD less favourable than recent levels if GBP/USD pressures persist.
  • Travellers: exchanging currency may face support for USD, making USD purchases more costly.
  • Businesses: paying US Dollar invoices could encounter less advantageous exchange rates if the downward trend continues.

🧭 Key drivers

  • Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and higher relative yields sustain USD strength.
  • Risk/commodities: Elevated geopolitical risks and risk aversion support safe-haven currencies.
  • Global factors: Energy prices in the Middle East increase geopolitical tensions, influencing currency sentiment.

⚠️ What could change it

  • Upside risk: A potential shift in risk sentiment towards optimism could weaken safe-haven flows.
  • Downside risk: A surprise easing of geopolitical tensions or a dovish surprise from the Fed could weaken USD.

BER suggests comparing FX providers to help offset less favourable conditions and finding providers with lower margins to reduce total transfer costs.

GBPUSD Bank Forecasts to end of the year

The outlook for GBPUSD by the end of the year is mixed according to major banks. Most forecasts from financial institutions suggest a potential rise in GBPUSD, with targets clustering around 1.36 to 1.38. However, some forecasts indicate a more bearish view, with expectations of the pair falling as low as 1.32, reflecting caution due to UK economic challenges and USD strength.

Big bank views

  • Goldman Sachs is targeting GBPUSD between 1.36 and 1.37 by year-end.
  • Societe Generale projects a weaker GBPUSD at approximately 1.32.
  • UOB anticipates a gradual rise to 1.36 by the fourth quarter of 2026.

What could change the outlook

  • The Bank of England's monetary policy decisions in response to domestic inflation and economic contraction.
  • The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and their impact on USD strength.

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GBP to USD market data

British pound (GBP) to US dollar (USD) market data - latest interbank exchange rate, trend, chart & historic rates.

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GBP to USD is at 14-day lows near 1.3315, just 0.6% below its 3-month average of 1.3405, having traded in a very stable 3.5% range from 1.3168 to 1.3634
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  1 USD = 0.7493 GBP
 

Will the British pound rise against the US dollar?

This is always a difficult question as exchange rates are influenced by many factors, so a good method to consider the British pound vs US dollar current value is to look the GBP/USD historic rate and change over a range of periods.

The following table looks at the change in the GBP to USD exchange rate over periods from the previous week back to the last 10 years.

DateGBP/USDChangePeriod
10 Jul 2026
1.3405
0.7% ▼2 Week
25 Apr 2026
1.3534
1.6% ▼3 Month
24 Jul 2025
1.3509
1.5% ▼1 Year
25 Jul 2021
1.3757
3.2% ▼5 Year
26 Jul 2016
1.3146
1.3% ▲10 Year
29 Jul 2006
1.8594
28.4% ▼20 Year
GBP/USD historic rates & change to 24-Jul-2026

It is almost impossible to predict what an exchange rate will do in the future, the best approach is to monitor the currency markets and transact when an exchange rate moves in your favour.

To help with this you can add GBP/USD to your personalised Rate Tracker to track and benefit from currency movements.

 
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