GBP/USD Outlook:
The GBP/USD is likely to decrease as it trades near its recent lows, currently around 1.3361, which is below its 90-day average of 1.3494. Recent data suggests uncertainty in the UK economy that could hinder the pound's recovery.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is expected to maintain higher rates longer compared to the Federal Reserve, but uncertainty remains.
• Risk/commodities: The USD may gain strength due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, boosting its safe-haven appeal.
• One macro factor: UK PMI results show signs of sticky inflation but also rising job cuts, reflecting potential weaknesses in the labor market.
Range:
GBP/USD is likely to remain stable within its recent range, holding between 1.3300 and 1.3837.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Strong economic data from the UK could shift expectations regarding BoE rate decisions.
• Downside risk: A worsening situation in the Middle East may further strengthen the USD.