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Currency outlook GBP/USD

GBP to USD Forecasts – British pound to US dollar

Latest GBP to USD forecasts including bank predictions, key market drivers and recent trends for GBP/USD. See where analysts expect the pair to move and the factors likely to influence it.

GBP to USD Forecast & Outlook

23 Jul 2026 • 00:26 GMT

GBP/USD 1.3375

📊 Forecast snapshot

  • Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
  • Expected range: 1.2940 – 1.3380
  • Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
  • 3-month trend: ⚪ Range-bound

Currently, GBP/USD is trading near 7-day lows around 1.3375, just below its 3-month average. The pair remains supported by risk-off conditions and safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Over the next few sessions, the pair may remain pressured by increasing safe-haven flows, which could keep the GBP vulnerable to further downside.

💸 Transfer implications

  • Expats: sending money to the US Dollar (USD) may find current levels less favourable than recent.
  • Travellers: exchanging GBP for USD might face further pressure on rates if risk-off sentiment persists.
  • Businesses: paying overseas USD invoices could see less advantageous conversion rates if the pair remains weak.

🧭 Key drivers

  • Rate gap: The UK’s relatively loose monetary policy contrasts with the US’s more aggressive rate hikes, narrowing the yield gap.
  • Risk/commodities: Rising geopolitical risks drive safe-haven flows, supporting USD and pressuring GBP.
  • Global factors: Geopolitical tensions and US market positioning are heightening safe-haven demand, impacting FX flows.

⚠️ What could change it

  • Upside risk: An easing of geopolitical risks or a shift in risk sentiment could support GBP and trigger a rebound.
  • Downside risk: Further escalation of tensions or stronger USD due to global macro shocks could deepen the pair’s weakness.

BER suggests shopping around for the lowest margin provider may help reduce overall transfer costs, especially during periods of currency weakness.

 

GBPUSD Bank Forecasts to end of the year

The outlook for GBPUSD by the end of the year is mixed according to major banks. Most forecasts from financial institutions suggest a potential rise in GBPUSD, with targets clustering around 1.36 to 1.38. However, some forecasts indicate a more bearish view, with expectations of the pair falling as low as 1.32, reflecting caution due to UK economic challenges and USD strength.

Big bank views

  • Goldman Sachs is targeting GBPUSD between 1.36 and 1.37 by year-end.
  • Societe Generale projects a weaker GBPUSD at approximately 1.32.
  • UOB anticipates a gradual rise to 1.36 by the fourth quarter of 2026.

What could change the outlook

  • The Bank of England's monetary policy decisions in response to domestic inflation and economic contraction.
  • The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and their impact on USD strength.
 

GBP-USD Rate Calculator

 
 
   
   
   
   
   
 
 

GBP to USD Market Data

British pound (GBP) to US dollar (USD) market data - latest interbank exchange rate, trend, chart & historic rates.

 
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GBP to USD is at 7-day lows near 1.3375, just below its 3-month average, having traded in a very stable 3.5% range from 1.3168 to 1.3634
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  1 USD = 0.7510 GBP

Compare & Save - British pound to US dollar

Exchange rates can vary significantly between different currency exchange providers, so it's important to compare British pound (GBP) to US dollar (USD) rates from different sources before making a conversion.

Use our GBP to USD calculator to see how much you could save on your international money transfers. makes it easy to compare the Total Cost you are being charged on Sterling to Dollar currency rates and the possible savings of using various providers.

 
 

Will the British pound rise against the US dollar?

This is always a difficult question as exchange rates are influenced by many factors, so a good method to consider the British pound vs US dollar current value is to look the GBP/USD historic rate and change over a range of periods.

The following table looks at the change in the GBP to USD exchange rate over periods from the previous week back to the last 10 years.

DateGBP/USDChangePeriod
09 Jul 2026
1.3414
0.2% ▼2 Week
24 Apr 2026
1.3534
1.1% ▼3 Month
23 Jul 2025
1.3579
1.4% ▼1 Year
24 Jul 2021
1.3749
2.6% ▼5 Year
25 Jul 2016
1.3135
1.9% ▲10 Year
28 Jul 2006
1.8608
28% ▼20 Year
GBP/USD historic rates & change to 23-Jul-2026

It is almost impossible to predict what an exchange rate will do in the future, the best approach is to monitor the currency markets and transact when an exchange rate moves in your favour.

To help with this you can add GBP/USD to your personalised Rate Tracker to track and benefit from currency movements.

 
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Rather than requiring you to set a target rate, our Rate Alerts keep you informed of recent trends and movements of currency pairs.

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Forecasts disclaimer: Please be advised that the forecasts and analysis of market data presented on BestExchangeRates.com are solely a review and compilation of forecasts from various market experts and economists. These forecasts are not meant to reflect the opinions or views of BestExchangeRates.com or its affiliates, nor should they be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in any financial transactions. Read more