Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, current price sits above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: BoE policy remains cautious with cuts expected later in this year, while the US Federal Reserve is seen easing toward a neutral stance, narrowing the policy gap.
Macro factor: US payrolls and unemployment data will shape Fed expectations and USD moves.
Range: GBP/USD is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with a tilt toward the upper end and occasional tests of the highs.
What could change it:
Upside risk: stronger-than-expected UK data or signals that the BoE will keep rates higher for longer could push GBP higher.
Downside risk: stronger US data or hawkish Fed commentary that keeps the dollar firm could push GBP lower.
