Bias: range-bound, current trading near the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range, with no clear breakout in sight today.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Fed is expected to cut rates toward neutral in 2026, while the BoC has already trimmed to a modest level, shrinking the USD/CAD gap.
- Risk/commodities: Oil remains above its 3-month average with sizable swings, supporting the CAD as a commodity-linked currency.
- Macro factor: U.S. payrolls and unemployment data due this week will shape Fed easing bets and thus USD demand.
Range: Expect a gradual drift within the recent 3-month range, with limited momentum and occasional tests near the upper boundary as traders weigh oil moves and US data.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: a stronger US jobs report and firmer Fed messaging lifting the dollar.
- Downside risk: softer US data or clearer signs of rate cuts reducing USD demand, or oil extending gains lifting CAD.