Bias: range-bound, current USD/CAD is near its 3-month average and sits in the middle of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: US policy is expected to ease gradually, while the Bank of Canada has signaled a balanced stance, narrowing the gap that supports a limited range for now.
- Risk/commodities: Oil remains above its longer-run average and volatile, a pattern that tends to support CAD when oil holds up.
- Macro: US labour market developments, notably payrolls and unemployment trends, will steer the dollar in coming weeks.
Range: USD/CAD likely to stay inside the 3-month range, with a gentle drift toward the middle.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: unexpectedly strong US payrolls data that boosts the dollar.
- Downside risk: a sustained oil rally or the BoC keeping policy supportive, lifting CAD and pushing USD/CAD lower.