Bias: The USD/CAD pair is currently range-bound, as it hovers near the 90-day average and remains within the middle of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts contrast with the Bank of Canada's recent rate reduction, affecting the comparative strength of the USD versus the CAD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are presently above their 3-month average, which could provide some support for the Canadian dollar since Canada relies on oil exports for revenue.
• A recent uptick in U.S. unemployment figures may lead to shifts in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy approach, impacting U.S. dollar strength.
Range: The USD/CAD is likely to drift within the established range as both currencies react to upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising increase in U.S. jobs data might bolster demand for the USD.
• Downside risk: A significant drop in oil prices could pressure the CAD lower, adversely affecting the USD/CAD rate.