USD/CAD Outlook:
The USD/CAD pair is slightly weaker, trading just below its 90-day average and within the middle of its 3-month range. The outlook suggests a sideways movement as both currencies face opposing forces.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts contrast with the Bank of Canada maintaining a steady approach, favoring USD.
• Risk/commodities: The Canadian dollar declines as oil prices ease, impacting CAD negatively since it is a major oil exporter.
• One macro factor: Recent reports indicate a possible uptick in US jobless claims, which might affect USD demand.
Range:
The USD/CAD is likely to drift within its recent range of 1.3490 to 1.3925, showing stability with no clear trend.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A rebound in oil prices could support the CAD.
• Downside risk: A significant rise in US jobless claims might weaken the USD.