The USD to CAD exchange rate currently appears bearish, reflecting recent weakening trends in the Canadian dollar.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, with the Federal Reserve potentially decreasing rates in 2026, which could weaken the USD. The Canadian dollar is also impacted by a weak manufacturing sector, indicated by a contraction in the PMI, suggesting economic softness. Additionally, oil prices, currently volatile, are trading below their 3-month average, which could pressure the CAD given Canada’s status as a major oil exporter.
In the near term, the USD/CAD exchange rate is expected to trade within a stable range, influenced by the recent highs near 1.3747 and a wider historical range.
Upside risks include unexpected strength in the US labor data that could support the USD, while downside risks might emerge if oil prices rebound significantly, providing support to the CAD amid a global economic recovery.