GBP/CAD Outlook:
The GBP/CAD pair is likely to decrease as it trades near its recent lows and remains below the 90-day average. The Canadian dollar's strength is influenced by rising oil prices, which could pressure the pound further.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is considering interest rate cuts, while the Bank of Canada is unlikely to ease its stance much given the global oil price surge.
• Risk/commodities: Oil is at 90-day highs, significantly above its average, providing support for the CAD as a commodity-linked currency.
• One macro factor: Upcoming forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility may reflect higher projections, potentially impacting the GBP positively.
Range:
Expect GBP/CAD to drift within its recent 3-month range, testing the lower end as factors weigh on the pound.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise positive revision in the UK's Spring Statement could bolster the GBP.
• Downside risk: Continued volatility in oil prices could further strengthen the CAD against the GBP.