The GBP to CAD exchange rate is currently range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates to 3.25% mid-2026 as inflation slows, while interest rates in Canada remain steady at 2.25%, supporting a stronger CAD.
- The recent Canadian jobs report showed significant growth with unemployment dropping, boosting confidence in the economy and the CAD.
- Oil prices are at 30-day highs, influencing CAD strength as Canada is a major oil exporter, with recent volatility in the oil market impacting the currency's value.
The expected trading range for GBP/CAD is likely to remain stable over the next one to three months.
An upside risk for the GBP/CAD exchange rate could arise if global economic conditions improve significantly, driving demand for the pound. Conversely, a downside risk may occur if oil prices decline sharply, leading to CAD depreciation and contributing to a stronger GBP.