GBP/CAD Outlook:
The GBP/CAD pair is slightly weaker but likely to move sideways as it trades just below its recent average and within mid-range levels. Current pressure from anticipated BoE rate cuts contributes to a cautious outlook.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut rates, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) has opted for a more stable approach, creating downward pressure on the GBP.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices are supporting the Canadian dollar, with oil near recent highs, benefiting the CAD as a commodity-linked currency.
• Macro factor: UK retail sales data is set to be released, which could heighten speculation about rate cuts by the BoE, influencing the GBP further.
Range:
The GBP/CAD is likely to drift within its recent 3-month range as pressures balance between both currencies.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise rise in UK retail sales could bolster the GBP and challenge downward forecasts.
• Downside risk: Further deterioration in UK economic data could solidify expectations of BoE rate cuts, weighing on the GBP.