GBP/CAD Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as it is above its recent average but lacks a clear driving force.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England’s cautious stance compared to the Bank of Canada’s maintained rate has the pound poised to hold its ground against the loonie.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices, now significantly above average, support the Canadian dollar while bolstering its commodity link, which could add pressure to GBP/CAD.
• One macro factor: Recent data showing resilience in UK retail sales and PMI figures has buoyed GBP, but continued political uncertainty may dampen confidence moving forward.
Range: GBP/CAD is likely to drift within its narrow recent range as it stabilizes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surge in UK economic indicators could strengthen the GBP further.
• Downside risk: A significant drop in oil prices could weaken the CAD and shift the GBP/CAD dynamic.