GBP/CAD Outlook:
GBP/CAD is slightly weaker but likely to move sideways, trading just below its 90-day average and within a stable range. Current political uncertainty in the UK could weigh on the pound, limiting any significant movement.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have differing stances on interest rate policies, affecting the attractiveness of GBP versus CAD.
• Risk/commodities: Falling oil prices, currently at recent highs, may limit CAD strength as Canada’s economy is sensitive to these fluctuations.
• One macro factor: The upcoming results from the UK by-elections could significantly influence GBP depending on Labour's performance.
Range:
GBP/CAD is expected to drift within its recent range, showing stability amid existing pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A strong performance by Labour in the by-elections could boost GBP confidence.
• Downside risk: A negative GDP report for Canada could weaken the CAD further, expanding the gap with GBP.