The GBP to CAD exchange rate is currently leaning bearish.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, where the Bank of England (BoE) signals a slower pace of future cuts and may reduce rates to 3.25% by mid-2026, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) keeps its rate steady at 2.25%. Additionally, rising concerns over fiscal policies in the UK may pressure the pound further. On the Canadian side, recent strong job growth supports the CAD.
Currently, GBP/CAD is expected to trade within a stable range, showing little deviation from its three-month average. Volatility in oil prices could also affect CAD, as it has recently dipped below its average amid fluctuating demand.
An upside risk for GBP could stem from stronger-than-expected UK retail performance, while a downside risk might arise from worsening economic data in Canada impacting the loonie.