GBP/CAD Outlook: The outlook for GBP/CAD is bullish as it trades above its 90-day average and is near recent highs, supported by ongoing oil price strength.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is expected to proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts, while the Bank of Canada maintains a neutral stance after its recent rate reduction.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly elevated, benefiting the Canadian economy, but continued trade tensions with the U.S. have put pressure on the Canadian dollar.
• One macro factor: Slowing GDP growth in the UK may hinder the pound's momentum, influencing its value against the CAD.
Range: GBP/CAD is likely to hold within its recent stable range as it trades near highs.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive surprise in UK economic data could boost the GBP.
• Downside risk: Further deterioration in U.S.-Canada trade relations could weaken CAD and pressure GBP/CAD lower.