GBP/CAD Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average and lacks a strong driver for further gains.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England has indicated cautious potential rate cuts, whereas the Bank of Canada recently maintained its rate, providing some support against the CAD.
• Risk/commodities: Recent oil prices have been volatile but are currently above average, which could support the Canadian dollar if the trend remains.
• One macro factor: Ongoing US tariffs on UK exports threaten economic growth, raising concerns for the British pound’s stability.
Range: The GBP/CAD rate is expected to drift within its current range, without testing extremes in the near term.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive shift in economic data from the UK could encourage stronger GBP performance.
• Downside risk: Further deterioration in UK economic outlook due to tariff impacts could press the GBP lower against the CAD.