Bias: range-bound, current GBP/CAD sits near the 90-day average and around the middle of its 3-month range, signaling no urgent directional push without a new data surprise or oil move.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE remains cautious on rate cuts, with easing expected later in 2026; BoC already cut and sits at a level designed to balance growth with inflation, keeping the path for two currencies divergent but not chaotic.
- Risk/commodities: Oil markets are trading above their longer-term average and show notable volatility; CAD tends to follow oil, so shifts in energy prices reliably move the pair.
- Macro factor: Upcoming Canadian employment data in January 2026 could swing CAD depending on the jobs report, reinforcing the link between the loonie and the domestic labor market.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with only modest moves to the upside or downside unless data or oil surprises change the balance.
What could change it:
Upside risk: Oil price weakness reduces CAD support and may lift GBP/CAD.
Downside risk: Stronger-than-expected Canadian employment data or an oil rally boosts CAD, weighing on GBP/CAD.