GBP/CAD Outlook: The outlook for GBP/CAD is bullish, as the rate is currently above its recent average and near recent highs.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious approach to rate cuts contrasts with the Bank of Canada's recent rate reduction, which has made GBP relatively stronger against CAD.
• Risk/commodities: Recent stability in oil prices, trading significantly above their average, has added pressure on the loonie, hindering its strength despite typical links to commodity performance.
• Global trade dynamics: Ongoing trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., continue to affect the UK's export activity and overall economic outlook.
Range: GBP/CAD is likely to drift within its stable recent range as both currencies react to local economic developments.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising increase in UK economic indicators could strengthen GBP further.
• Downside risk: A fresh wave of tariffs impacting UK exports could pressure GBP and lead to a decline.