Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, because GBP/CAD remains above its 90-day average and sits in the upper half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE's policy rate remains higher than BoC's, giving GBP a relative footing versus CAD. This dynamic tends to support GBP during risk-off moves and when USD strength is firm, and it may cap CAD gains.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices sit above the 90-day average with notable volatility; firmer oil tends to support CAD, capping GBP/CAD gains, while a sharp pullback could lift GBP.
- Macro factor: UK inflation easing toward the BoE target supports a gradual rate-cut path; that path keeps the pound steady but offers limited upside unless growth accelerates.
Range: GBP/CAD likely to drift within the three-month range, with a bias to test the upper end but remain contained unless UK data surprises and oil markets flip.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger-than-expected UK data (inflation or growth) fueling a hawkish tilt from the BoE.
- Downside risk: oil prices rally further, boosting CAD and weighing on GBP/CAD.