GBP/CAD Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is just above its recent average but lacking a clear directional driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious approach to rate cuts contrasts with the Bank of Canada's recent reduction, which may keep the rate pressured.
• Risk/commodities: Recent oil prices are higher than average, but any downturn could weaken the Canadian dollar and support the GBP/CAD rate.
• One macro factor: Ongoing US tariffs on UK exports threaten economic growth, leading to mixed confidence in the pound.
Range: Expect GBP/CAD to hold within its recent 3-month range, with limited movement in either direction.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A strong rebound in UK economic data could boost the pound.
• Downside risk: A significant fall in oil prices could weaken the CAD and cause the GBP/CAD to shift lower.