The Polish zloty (PLN) has recently experienced notable fluctuations influenced by various economic and political developments. In June 2025, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) made a significant shift by cutting its benchmark interest rate to 5.0% for the first time in 18 months. This decision was largely fueled by declining inflation, which fell to 4.2% in April—the lowest mark in nine months—due to decreased fuel prices and moderated wage growth. Analysts speculate that this trend might lead to further rate cuts, impacting the zloty's positioning.
Political changes also loom over the PLN's outlook. The election of President Karol Nawrocki signals potential policy shifts, indicating a more Eurosceptic approach and closer ties with U.S. policies. Such developments raise concerns regarding Poland's relationship with the European Union and could create volatility in the currency market.
Despite these headwinds, Poland's economy demonstrated resilience in Q1 2025, with GDP growth recorded at 3.2% year-on-year, bolstered by strong domestic consumption. This positive economic performance may provide some support for the zloty amid global uncertainties. However, as UBS highlighted in June, the EUR/PLN forecast was downgraded to 4.25 through Q2 2026, reflecting global trade tensions and ongoing political risks.
In terms of recent exchange rates, the PLN to USD is currently at 0.2741, slightly above its three-month average. It has traded within a stable range of 4.5%, indicating a period of relative stability. The PLN to EUR is presently at 0.2351, reaching seven-day highs and close to its three-month average, with a tight trading range of 1.2%. Meanwhile, the PLN to GBP is at 0.2040, also at 14-day highs and showcasing a robust trading pattern, with a 4.9% stable range. Lastly, the PLN to JPY has shifted to 40.57, marking a 1.4% increase from its three-month average.
These dynamics illustrate the complex factors at play in the PLN market, emphasizing the importance of monitoring both economic indicators and political developments to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.
