The Polish zloty (PLN) is currently experiencing pressure following a recent interest rate cut by the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which lowered the key rate to 4.00% amid lower-than-expected inflation. Analysts from Reuters suggest that the NBP might adopt a "wait-and-see" approach to future rate changes, primarily due to the country's significant budget deficit. This monetary policy stance could contribute to a weakening of the zloty in the upcoming year.
A Reuters poll indicates a forecast for the zloty to soften slightly to 4.25 per euro over the next 12 months, driven by anticipated economic stagnation and increasing fiscal pressures. Concerns are also arising from the political landscape following the election of President Karol Nawrocki, whose recent vetoes and policy debates have raised issues regarding potential fiscal challenges that could further dampen the zloty’s outlook.
Additionally, a revision by UBS noted persistent global trade tensions and domestic political challenges, adjusting its EUR/PLN forecast to 4.25 through the second quarter of 2026. Recent data indicates that the PLN to USD is trading at 0.2751, slightly above its three-month average in a stable range. Similarly, PLN to EUR at 0.2363, the PLN to GBP at 0.2065, and the PLN to JPY at 42.69 are all showing slight increases compared to their three-month averages, reflecting a stable trading environment for these key currency pairs. However, these trends may be at risk as the economic and political situation unfolds in the coming months.
