The Polish zloty (PLN) has recently exhibited a mixed performance influenced by significant monetary policy shifts, inflation trends, political developments, and global trade relations. Analysts note that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) reduced its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in May, bringing it to 5.25%. This decision was influenced by a notable decline in inflation, which fell to 4.3% year-on-year in April, its lowest since August 2024. Forecasters have highlighted that the continuing downtrend in inflation, measured at 4.1% in May, raises expectations for further rate cuts by the NBP, which may place additional downward pressure on the zloty.
Political uncertainties stemming from the election of President Karol Nawrocki in August 2025 have further complicated the outlook for the zloty. The new administration has encountered challenges in advancing its legislative agenda, potentially impacting fiscal policies that are crucial for the currency's stability. Additionally, concerns over global trade tensions, particularly with the United States, are pressing on Poland's export-driven economy, which could affect future economic growth and the performance of the zloty.
Currently, the PLN to USD exchange rate is at 0.2746, aligning closely with its three-month average. The currency has been trading within a stable range of 4.6%, from 0.2669 to 0.2792. Meanwhile, the PLN to EUR rate is near a 90-day high of 0.2364, which is just 0.6% above its three-month average, having fluctuated minimally from 0.2335 to 0.2364. The PLN to GBP also stands at 90-day highs at 0.2061, showing a 1.0% increase over its average, with limited movement in a range from 0.2016 to 0.2061. Similarly, the PLN to JPY has risen to 41.91, marking a 2.8% increase above its three-month average and reflecting a stable trading range from 39.83 to 41.91.
In summary, market participants should remain alert to ongoing developments in monetary policy, inflation, political landscapes, and international trade dynamics as they continue to shape the outlook for the Polish zloty.
