Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, USD/SEK sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Fed is expected to trim policy rates toward a neutral stance in 2026, while the Riksbank keeps policy steady at a very low level through 2026.
- Risk appetite: Global appetite for risk has fluctuated; a firmer mood tends to lift the krona against the dollar, while risk-off can push the dollar higher.
- Macro factor: US payrolls and unemployment data due will shape Fed easing bets and the dollar’s path.
Range: Likely to drift within the three-month band, with tests of the lower end if the dollar stays firm.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A stronger US payrolls report or hotter inflation could push the dollar higher.
- Downside risk: Softer US data or signs of Swedish outperformance could push USD/SEK lower.
