Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, current USD/SEK is below the 90-day average and sits in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates toward a neutral stance in 2026, while the Riksbank is seen staying on hold, narrowing the USD/SEK rate gap and supporting the krona.
- Macro factor: SEB’s outlook calls for stable growth and improving unemployment through 2026, underpinning SEK resilience.
Range: USD/SEK is likely to drift in the lower half of the three-month range, with a tendency to stay near the lower end.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: a hawkish Fed tilt or unexpectedly strong US payrolls could lift USD/SEK.
- Downside risk: softer US data or a clearer Fed easing path strengthens SEK and pushes USD/SEK lower.
