Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, with USD/SEK below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Fed is expected to ease in 2026 while the Riksbank holds rates, narrowing the USD edge and supporting SEK.
- Macro factor: Upcoming US payrolls and unemployment data will shape Fed easing bets and the dollar’s direction against the krona.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the recent 3-month range, with a tendency to test the lower end but not break the band.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: unexpectedly strong US data or a firmer signal from the Fed could lift the dollar versus the krona.
- Downside risk: clearer Fed easing expectations and softer US data could pull USD/SEK toward the lower end of the range.
