New Zealand dollar (NZD) Market Update
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in 2024. Major banks and financial institutions predict a rally for the NZD, particularly from the second quarter of the year, as the US dollar is expected to decline due to anticipated Federal Reserve easing. Despite being somewhat undervalued, the NZD remains the highest-yielding G10 currency after the USD, which attracts investors seeking higher returns.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may cut rates in the summer of 2024. However, a potential remit change focusing on stricter inflation targeting could lead to higher interest rates for a longer period, which would benefit the NZD. Risks to the economy include persistent inflation and its impact on households, the potential for a recession, and fluctuating dairy product prices, which is an important export for New Zealand.
In recent price data, the NZD has shown strength against key currency pairs. The NZD/USD pair is currently at 90-day highs near 0.6106, which is 2.8% above its 3-month average. Similarly, the NZD/EUR pair is at 14-day highs near 0.5567, just above its 3-month average. The NZD/GBP pair is trading at 0.4829, just 0.6% above its 3-month average. Finally, the NZD/JPY pair is at 90.53, which is 2.5% above its 3-month average. These stable ranges of trading indicate relatively steady performance for the NZD against these currencies.
Overall, FX analysts and economists suggest that the NZD has the potential for a positive performance in 2024, supported by a weaker US dollar and higher-yielding status. However, economic risks and potential market fluctuations should still be monitored closely.
