Outlook
Thai baht likely to hover near the 32.0 per USD level on average in 2026, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, higher gold prices, and a current-account surplus. But the pace of any appreciation is likely to be limited, as markets price in fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts. Domestically, a tightening of online gold trading rules in March 2026 may cap gold-driven FX flows and temper big moves in the THB, even as gold remains a key price influence.
Key drivers
- Gold price moves: Record-high gold supports the baht through bullion-related flows, but can also amplify volatility as flows wax and wane.
- BoT online gold trading rules: From March 2026, daily online gold transactions per user are capped at 50 million baht; larger trades require regulatory approval. This aims to reduce currency volatility linked to gold demand.
- US dollar path and Fed policy: Markets expect fewer Fed rate cuts, which could limit baht appreciation and put a floor under the USD/THB moves.
- Current-account position: A persistent current-account surplus supports THB resilience against sustained dollar strength.
- Exports and tourism: The stronger baht is weighing on export competitiveness and tourism sentiment, which can cap upside for the currency despite the positive current-account signal.
Range
- THB to USD: current 0.031700; 3-month range 0.030692–0.032456
- THB to EUR: current 0.026728; 3-month range 0.026511–0.027522
- THB to GBP: current 0.023151; 3-month range 0.023135–0.023982
- THB to JPY: current 4.9136; 3-month range 4.7152–5.1007
What could change it
- US monetary policy: A faster or slower path of Fed rate cuts or unexpected US data could shift USD strength and THB.
- Gold-flow regime: The online gold trading rules and any shifts in gold price momentum could alter FX flows and THB direction.
- External demand: A stronger or weaker export/tourism cycle in Thailand could change the current-account stance and sentiment for THB.
- Policy surprises: Thai regulatory or policy developments beyond the gold rules could affect risk appetite and currency levels.
