The Australian dollar (AUD) and the Canadian dollar (CAD) have recently exhibited notable movements influenced by various economic factors. As of mid-November 2025, the AUD is nearing a 30-day high against the CAD at approximately 0.9221, which is a modest increase of 0.8% over its three-month average of 0.9145. This stability reflects a relatively tight trading range of 2.4%, from 0.9007 to 0.9227.
The Australian dollar's recent performance has been impacted by an unexpected slowdown in GDP growth, which, although initially overlooked due to a positive risk sentiment in markets, has left the currency vulnerable against stronger counterparts. The upcoming trade figures from Australia, expected to indicate a widening trade surplus, are crucial for determining the AUD's strength. Analysts observe that Australia's commodity-driven economy, particularly its ties to China's demand for exports, plays a critical role in sustaining the AUD, especially when commodity prices fluctuate.
Conversely, the Canadian dollar has been affected by mixed signals from oil markets and a recent cut in interest rates by the Bank of Canada. The loonie remains volatile, recently influenced by rising oil prices, which typically boost the CAD due to its status as a key oil exporter. However, recent trends show that oil prices are currently 3.2% below their three-month average, contributing to uncertainty around the CAD's performance. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is anticipated to show a slight acceleration in economic activity, which could provide some support for the CAD.
Forecasters suggest that the ongoing volatility in oil prices, alongside the Bank of Canada's interest rate adjustments, will continue to shape the CAD's trajectory. Market analysts note that while both the AUD and CAD are affected by global economic sentiment, the forthcoming economic data releases, especially related to trade balances and commodity prices, will be crucial in determining their relative strengths moving forward.
Overall, businesses and individuals engaging in transactions involving AUD and CAD should remain attentive to these economic indicators, as they are likely to influence the exchange rate dynamics in the near term. The interplay between commodity prices, interest rate changes, and global economic conditions will be essential in assessing future movements in the AUD/CAD exchange rate.
