The exchange rate forecast for the AUD to CAD appears to be influenced by recent economic developments and market dynamics on both sides. Analysts suggest that the Australian dollar (AUD) has shown stability following the release of positive Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, which indicated stronger-than-expected growth in Australia's private sector. This confidence in the AUD may continue to provide some support, although the lack of significant economic data from Australia early in the week could leave the currency vulnerable to broader market risks and sentiment shifts.
On the other hand, the Canadian dollar (CAD) faced downward pressure due to disappointing retail sales figures, which failed to meet expectations. The CAD is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices, which are currently at 30-day lows, trading around 62.21 USD—significantly below the 3-month average of 65.33 USD. Given that Canada is a major oil exporter, this decline could further exacerbate the CAD's weakness if oil prices continue to fall.
Analysts have pointed out that the recent 0.9107 value of the AUD to CAD exchange rate is just below its 3-month average, indicating a relatively stable trading range of 2.8% from 0.8978 to 0.9227. Experts note that any continued weakness in CAD due to falling oil prices, coupled with the present stability in the AUD, could lead to further appreciation of the AUD against the CAD if the current trends persist.
Overall, while the AUD might benefit from positive domestic indicators and market sentiment, the CAD's performance is currently hampered by weak retail data and unfavorable oil market conditions. Focus on commodity prices, interest rates, and trade relations remains crucial for gauging future direction, as these elements will continue to shape the fluctuations in the AUD/CAD exchange rate.
