AUD/CAD Outlook:
The outlook for AUD/CAD is slightly positive but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver. Trading at 14-day lows, the pair stays relatively stable despite recent volatility in global markets.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained a less aggressive interest rate stance compared to the Bank of Canada, keeping AUD under some pressure.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above their recent average, which tends to support CAD, especially in the current geopolitical context.
• Macro factor: Australia’s upcoming trade figures may influence AUD if they confirm a widening surplus, potentially offering support.
Range:
The AUD/CAD is likely to hold within its recent range, responding moderately to external factors rather than displaying significant upward or downward momentum.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A strong trade report from Australia could boost the AUD.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions could lead to a further risk-off mood, weakening the AUD.
