AUD to CAD Forecast & Outlook
25 Jul 2026 • 00:26 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
- Expected range: 0.9770 – 0.9950
- Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
- 3-month trend: 🟢 Uptrend
Currently, AUD/CAD is trading close to its 3-month average, holding near recent highs within a stable range. The pair is supported by risk-off sentiment, which favors safe-haven currencies like the Canadian dollar. Over the next few sessions, this risk sentiment may continue to pressure the pair lower, especially if global tensions persist and risk aversion remains dominant.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Canada may find current levels less favourable if the pair declines further.
- Travellers: buying CAD cash or loading cards could face slightly less advantageous rates.
- Businesses: paying CAD invoices in AUD should consider that conditions may be less favourable than recent levels.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: The Australian Dollar's (AUD) monetary policy remains neutral, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) benefits from a risk-off environment, pressuring the AUD/CAD exchange rate.
- Risk/commodities: Global risk sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions and trade concerns, supporting the CAD over the AUD.
- Global factors: U.S. trade tensions and USMCA-related trade uncertainties influence CAD’s safe-haven status and global demand.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: A shift towards risk-on market conditions could support the AUD and help it regain some ground.
- Downside risk: A further escalation in geopolitical tensions or commodity price shocks could push the pair lower.
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