Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, as AUDCAD sits above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The RBA signaled possible hikes in 2026, while the BoC has cut and sits at a lower level, reducing CAD's appeal and widening the gap for AUD.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices at 90-day highs support CAD and cap AUD gains.
- AU macro: Upcoming CPI and January jobs data could steer bets on the RBA path; a hotter print would lift AUD.
Range: AUDCAD is expected to hold within the 3-month range, with a drift toward the upper end as long as domestic data stay firm and oil remains supportive.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: a stronger-than-expected AU CPI or jobs print would intensify rate-hike bets for the RBA, pushing AUD higher versus CAD.
- Downside risk: oil prices push higher, lifting CAD and weighing on AUDCAD; or BoC commentary leaning toward more easing could widen the gap against AUD.