AUD to CAD Forecast & Outlook
12 Aug 2026 • 00:25 GMT
Quick AUD/CAD forecast
Currently, AUD/CAD is trading near the 90-day average, holding near recent lows around 0.9832. The dominance of the rate differential remains a key driver, with Australian interest rate expectations leaning hawkish while Canadian yields are less supportive. Risk-off conditions, supported by declines in commodities and safe-haven flows, are exerting pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Over the next few sessions, the pair may remain supported by these global risk aversion factors, but its downside should be limited unless the risk environment eases.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Canada may find Australian Dollars less favourable for conversions.
- Travellers: exchanging cash or loading cards may encounter more costly rates on AUD against CAD.
- Businesses: paying Canadian invoices in AUD could face less advantageous exchange rates if the pair weakens further.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: The Australian rate outlook remains comparatively hawkish, while the Canadian rate differential offers limited support.
- Risk/commodities: Safe-haven flows and weakness in commodities, notably energy and metals, dominate, pressuring risk-sensitive FX.
- Global factors: Broader risk-off sentiment driven by global geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty supports safe havens over AUD and CAD.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: A shift toward risk-on could trigger a rebound in AUD/CAD.
- Downside risk: A sharp decline in commodities or further escalation in global risk aversion might extend the pair’s weakness.
BER suggests shopping around for the lowest margin provider may help reduce overall transfer costs. Comparing FX providers could help offset less favourable exchange conditions, especially if the pair continues to weaken.