The AUD/CAD exchange rate is currently in a range-bound phase.
Key drivers influencing the rate include the interest rate differential, with the Reserve Bank of Australia expected to increase rates in early 2026, contrasting with the Bank of Canada maintaining its rate at 2.25%. The Canadian dollar remains under pressure due to stalling oil prices, which are 3.3% below their 3-month average. Recent job growth in Canada, significantly surpassing expectations, has also bolstered confidence in the CAD.
In the near term, the AUD/CAD is expected to remain within a stable range, maintaining its current price levels. Upside risks could arise from improved economic data in Australia that leads to a quicker rate hike by the RBA. On the downside, a sharp drop in oil prices could weaken the CAD further, impacting the AUD/CAD exchange rate negatively.