Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, AUD/DKK sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: RBA signals potential rate hikes in 2026 while Danmarks Nationalbank keeps the krone peg and policy stance intact, widening the relative appeal of AUD.
• Risk/commodities: China’s softer inflation and uneven recovery dampen demand for Australian exports, weighing on the AUD.
• Macro factor: upcoming Australian CPI release could influence RBA expectations and the AUD trajectory.
Range: hold in the upper portion of the 3-month range, with a gentle drift toward the high end.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: stronger Australian inflation or jobs data reinforcing rate-hike expectations.
• Downside risk: a renewed slowdown in China or weaker commodity demand weighing on the AUD.