AUD to EUR Forecast & Outlook
In the near term, AUD/EUR is trading close to recent highs and held near the 3-month range’s upper end. The dominant driver from structured analysis, the rate differential, supports a weaker Australian Dollar. Euro strength from global risk sentiment decline and policy signals also influences the pair. Conditions suggest AUD/EUR may remain supported by recent volatility but could face pressure if risk sentiment worsens further.
Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Euro zones may find recent exchange rates less favourable than recent levels.
- Travellers: exchanging currency might encounter higher costs if the pair trends lower.
- Businesses: paying Euro invoices with AUD could see less cost advantage if the pair declines further.
Key drivers
- Rate gap: The RBA’s rate hike expectations support AUD, but euro policy signals suggest limited euro upside.
- Risk/commodities: Slight decline in risk appetite and risk-off sentiment pressure AUD lower.
- Global factors: Global risk sentiment has softened, supporting safe havens and pressuring risk-sensitive currencies.
What could change it
- Upside risk: Further deterioration in risk sentiment could strengthen the euro further.
- Downside risk: An unexpected shift in global risk appetite or policy outlook might weaken the euro or support the AUD.
BER suggests comparing FX providers to help offset less favourable exchange conditions and find lower margins to reduce overall transfer costs.
