The current market bias for the AUD to HKD exchange rate is bearish. Key drivers include the interest rate differential, as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to raise rates while the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) maintains a stable rate. Additionally, rising commodity prices have recently supported the AUD, though broader market risk sentiment remains cautious. Economic growth indicators suggest that Australia’s inflation is impacting the RBA's monetary policy stance positively.
Trading in the near term is expected to range moderately above recent averages, reflecting fluctuations influenced by commodity prices and global sentiment. The AUD is currently around 2.0% higher than its 3-month average.
Upside risks include a significant rebound in global commodity demand, enhancing the Australian dollar's appeal. On the downside, any resurgence in risk aversion could weaken the AUD further as investors seek safer assets, potentially pushing it lower against the HKD.