Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, current level is above the 90-day average and sits in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The RBA signals potential rate hikes in 2026, while the HKMA keeps the HKD peg steady, widening the policy gap in favor of the AUD.
- Risk/commodities: The AUD remains a commodity currency; softer China inflation weighs on demand for Australian exports, tempering AUD strength.
- Macro factor: China’s uneven rebound and weak iron ore demand shape the AUD by softening export momentum.
Range: AUDHKD is likely to drift within the recent 3-month range, with a bias toward the upper end but staying within bounds.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A clearer path for higher Australian rates and a stronger China rebound could lift the AUD against the HKD.
- Downside risk: HKMA intervention to defend the peg or a shift in global liquidity could push HKD stronger, pressuring AUDHKD lower.