Bias: AUDHKD is bullish-to-range-bound, as AUDHKD sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Australian central bank is signaling potential policy tightening ahead, while HKMA preserves the HKD peg, reducing HKD's sensitivity to domestic rate moves and limiting near-term HKD upside.
- Risk/commodities: Oil has been choppy but around average, supporting the AUD when demand holds, while HKD remains linked to the USD and less exposed to commodity cycles.
- Macro factor: Upcoming Australian CPI and jobs data could shift the AUD trajectory, depending on whether inflation cools or stays firm.
Range: AUDHKD is likely to drift within the three-month range, with a tendency to test the upper bound amid mixed price signals.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger Australian data or clearer policy tightening signals from the RBA could lift AUDHKD, drawing it toward the upper portion of the range.
- Downside risk: renewed HKMA intervention or a stronger USD could weigh on HKD, pushing it toward the weaker end of the corridor.
