Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, the pair sits above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range, suggesting limited upside but no downside breakout for now.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: the RBA has signalled possible rate hikes in 2026 while the BSP is expected to ease later, widening the interest-rate gap and supporting the Aussie against the peso.
- China demand: softer inflation data and a slower recovery reduce demand for Australian commodities such as iron ore, which tends to weigh on the AUD over time.
- Macro factor: upcoming Australian CPI data could sway bets on how soon the RBA might tighten, impacting the AUD path.
Range: AUDPHP is likely to drift within the current 3-month band, hovering near the upper end and testing the limits without a clear breakout.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger-than-expected Australian CPI data reinforcing bets on tighter policy.
- Downside risk: the peso firms more than expected as BSP eases, boosting PHP and weighing on the AUDPHP.