Bias: The AUD/PHP is currently bullish-to-range-bound, as it is above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia's potential mention of interest rate hikes could support the AUD against the PHP, where economic forecasts suggest monetary easing.
• Risk/commodities: Despite recent declines in Chinese demand affecting commodity prices, the AUD may find support if oil prices remain stable, thanks to Australia’s export profiles.
• One macro factor: The upcoming Australian Consumer Price Index report could provide insight into inflation trends, impacting the AUD's trajectory.
Range: The AUD/PHP is likely to hold steady within its recent trading range, with occasional tests of the upper extreme.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected CPI report in Australia could boost the AUD further.
• Downside risk: Continued weakness in China's economy and soft demand for Australian exports might pressure the AUD lower.