Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, current AUD/PHP sits above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The RBA is signaling possible rate hikes in 2026, while BSP easing expectations would widen the yield gap, supporting AUD versus PHP.
• China inflation: Softer inflation in China clouds demand for Australian exports, weighing on the AUD and, by extension, the PHP pair.
Range: AUD/PHP is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with a tendency to test toward the upper end as policy paths diverge and data flow remains mixed.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: clearer signs of persistent RBA tightening would push the pair toward the upper end of the range.
• Downside risk: a sharper Chinese slowdown or unexpected BSP easing could weigh on the AUD and push PHP higher.